4 Years In Iraq – Studying Dinar – Live Phone Interview: First 50 Callers

Pin the tail on the Dinar reval Interview/Mastermind Teleseminar. 4th and Final call in the mini Teleseminar series. VIP access is no longer available but you may still attend for free:

April 14 8pm Central Time
DrDinar Live Free Call Invite
ph number 1-404-920-6610
Your access code *******
(you must enter # at the end)

Would you call the World Bank to get answers? The retired gentleman I’m about to Interview did exactly that to get answers in his quest for ‘Truth’ about the Iraq Dinar currency.

Call will be hosted by Darren Chabluk from http://DrDinar.com
Recording of the call will be available as part of the DrDinar home study course later this spring.

117 Responses to “4 Years In Iraq – Studying Dinar – Live Phone Interview: First 50 Callers”

  1. Anita says:

    Darren – what are you hearing about the possibility of the Dinar RVing this next week?

    THANKS ~ Anita

  2. I have not heard anything about a reval this week. I mostly go by a theory combined with current events as they relate to the troops exit plan and sanctions being removed as spoken about by Mrs. Clinton.

    This is probably not what you want to hear. We will be having a call to discuss the theory: Remove Sanctions=Fertile soil for Reval with plenty of water to grow a strong ROI.


  3. george says:

    lets be realistic …iraq has to be in control of it self … in order for a Rv…and that will not happen until the “us of a” troops are out of the country and iraq is gov’g on there own !!! ….only my outlook !!!

  4. admin says:

    It could happen sooner than later, but thats my outlook too. You got sanctions that will fall off like an old scab too, everyone will happen close together, when it happens.

  5. Carlos says:

    I am a contractor working in Kuwait and I have purchased the Dinar. We are hearing that when or if the Dinar come’s into market you will have to be a residence of Iraq to cash it in. I surely hope that is not the case.
    It is still for sale here in Kuwait at money exchanges. I have a few million and was wondering should i purchase a few more but the news I hear in Kuwait is not promissing news.

  6. admin says:


    Don’t take your financial advice from a broke neighbor for example. It is high risk, and it is not happening this month. You have not elaborated on your concerns at all.

    When Dinar goes on the world market, any exhange house around the world will accept your Dinar. Be very careful who you take financial advice from.

  7. Atta Khalil says:

    I am excited about the positive news coming out of Iraq as I too hold a million Dinar. Since I am holding the denomination of 25,000, I am concerned about its withrawal once the revaluation takes place. Could anyone advice me whether is it worth to keep the currency of this high denomination.?

  8. Henry says:

    Iraq: BP And CNPC Win Oil Contract
    June 30, 2009
    China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) and BP won a contract to
    help Iraq develop the Rumaila oil field in southern Iraq, the Financial
    Times reported June 30. BP and CNPC’s chief competitor for the contract
    were joint partners ExxonMobil and Malaysian oil company Petronas.

  9. george says:

    the troops out of the cities is an excellent start…next oil stabilization…..and w’re off to an rv of the dinar …only imo !

  10. george says:

    iraq gov gave oil bidding co’s until 1500 GMT tues to re think their bids….
    the one auction bid went for 2.00 per extra barrel to BP led-group……. ????
    it is a wait and see for oil contracts in iraq ..it’s at top of the list !!

  11. Henry says:

    U.S.: Vice President Arrives In Iraq
    U.S.: Vice President Arrives In Iraq
    July 2, 2009

    U.S. Vice President Joe Biden arrived in Baghdad on July 2 for a three-day visit during which he will meet with Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and with U.S. commanders and troops, Reuters reported. Biden’s trip to Iraq had not been announced previously.

  12. george says:

    Hello! as i once said ..and used the term “bus world”…there are co’ from all over the world involved in doing bus with iraq which will help in stabilizing iraq…and therefore be closer to the dinar RV !!!

  13. Henry says:

    U.S.: Obama Confident About Withdrawal Timetable In Iraq
    July 2, 2009
    President Barack Obama on July 2 said he is confident the United States
    will be able to abide by the timetable agreement for U.S. troop
    withdrawal in Iraq, but he acknowledged that he has reserved the right
    to adjust the timetable based on changing conditions there, The
    Associated Press reported. Obama also praised U.S. commanders for their
    work in turning over the security of cities to the Iraqis.

  14. Henry says:

    France, Iraq: Cooperation Agreement Signed
    July 2, 2009
    Prime Minister Francois Fillon and Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki
    said July 2 that France and Iraq have signed a cooperation agreement
    promoting bilateral economic, cultural and scientific relations, Xinhua
    reported. As part of the agreement, France expressed its commitment to
    support Iraq in its efforts to join the World Trade Organization (WTO)
    and finalize a partnership agreement with the European Union. Fillon
    was accompanied to Iraq by a delegation of 30 French business

  15. News sources directly from Iraq is the priority although I filter a lot of news myself from different media sources and draw my own conclusions using feedback from everyone here also.

    Larry Friend (Delaware) Says:

    June 4th, 2009 at 4:26 pm
    Darren, whats the status of the Dr Dinar home study course ?
    Also what will the course cost? (June 4,2009)”

    Larry, the DrDinar home study course and support site is turning out to
    be extremely time consuming and I don’t know if it will be ready before a reval. I’m actually a little bit worried but, will keep you updated.

    As you may know, I run a trucking company too, and it takes very much
    time to put together a real genuine meat and potato package like that. I don’t even know if it will finish in time….

  16. Henry says:

    بغداد ( إيبا )/البنك المركزي/تطورات/..قال مستشار البنك المركزي العراقي ان السياسة النقدية في البلاد مقبلة على تطورات جديدة تصب في صالح الاقتصاد الوطني بعد اعلان الانسحاب العسكري الاجنبي من المدن العراقية . BAGHDAD (Iba) / Central Bank / developments / .. adviser said that the Iraqi Central Bank monetary policy in the country on the verge of a new developments are in favor of the national economy after the withdrawal of foreign military from Iraqi cities.

    واضاف مظهر محمد صالح لوكالة الصحافة المستقلة ( إيبا ) اليوم الخميس ان الاعلان الرسمي للانسحاب هو اعتراف بتحسن الواقع الامني وهو نقطة الانطلاق التي تخدم السياسة النقدية وتسهم في تعزيز قيمة صرف الدينار ازاء الدولار وتنعكس ايجابا على العملية الاقتصادية برمتها . The appearance of Mohammed Saleh told the independent press (Iba) said Thursday that the official announcement of the withdrawal is a recognition of the improved security, a fact which serves the starting point of monetary policy and contribute to the enhancement of the value of the dinar against the dollar and reflected positively on the whole economic process.

    واشار صالح الى عزم البنك على وضع البرامج المتطورة خلال العام الجاري وتفعيل الاتفاقيات الدولية وتوصيات المؤتمرات الخاصة بالبنك والمصارف العراقية . The benefit of the bank’s intention to develop high-technology programs during the current year and the activation of international conventions and recommendations of the Bank and Iraqi banks. رادّا الانتقادات التي وجهها عدد من المعنيين بالشان الاقتصادي للسياسة النقدية . Rada criticism by a number of those involved in economic affairs of monetary policy.

    وشدد على ضرورة تأسيس المصارف بصورة مهنية ضمن انظمة وآليات عمل بعيدة عن اعتبارات الحجم وبما يتناسب ومصالح البللاد . He stressed the need for the establishment of banks within the professional systems and mechanisms of action are far from considerations of scale and commensurate with the interests of Albullad. مؤكدا ان التكامل الاقتصادي بما فيه النقدي ، مسألة بالغة الأهمية لرفع مستويات المعيشة المواطن والمنافسة الدولية المعتمدة على الافضليات . Stressing that economic integration, including monetary, issue of great importance to raising the living standards of international competition and citizen-based preferences.

    وتابع صالح ان البنك يؤكد على اعداد الدراسات والبحوث التي يعتمد عليها في رسم هذه السياسات وباستقلالية وشفافية مهنية ، مثلما هو الحال في البنوك العالمية . The benefit of the Bank emphasizes the preparation of studies and research upon which these policies in the design and the professional independence and transparency, as in the case of international banks. منوها الى ان جميع القائمين حريص على تطوير عمل المصارف والمحافظة على المكاسب التي تحققت خلال الفترة السابقة . Adding that all those keen to develop the work of banks and to preserve the gains achieved during the previous period.

    يذكر ان صالح ذكر في تصريح صحفي ان المعنيين بشؤون السياسة النقدية للبلاد يتابعون الغموض في فهم اشارات السياسة النقدية للبنك التي واصلت مواجهتها لحالتي التضخم الجامح وتدهور سعر صرف الدينار العراقي وعبر مظاهر الاختلال الاقتصادي والاجتماعي الصعبة التي عاشتها البلاد منذ اكثر من ثلاثة عقود من الزمن .(النهاية)/20/ The Saleh said in a press statement that concerned with the affairs of the country’s monetary policy following the uncertainty in understanding the signals the monetary policy of the bank, which continued to face the cases of hyper-inflation and the deterioration of the Iraqi dinar exchange rate and through the manifestations of the imbalance of economic and social experience of the difficult country for more than three decades.

  17. Henry says:

    Iraq: PM To Visit United States
    July 5, 2009
    Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki will visit the United States on July 21
    to meet with U.S. President Barack Obama, Xinhua reported July 5. The
    two leaders are expected to discuss bilateral relations and issues of
    common interest. Al-Maliki will also meet with U.N. Secretary General
    Ban Ki-moon to discuss repealing sanctionsplaced on Iraq following
    Saddam Hussein’s invasion of Kuwait in 1990.

  18. Henry says:

    Baghdad ‘returning to normal’
    Article here:
    http://english.aljazeera.net/focus/2009/07/2009756584634293.html [http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102632034346&s=3304&e=0013xIWYuyk5cm5R3IpGO_e71ntg9y380zUzB5rTRFjaEO1yIIGpLsNOwlWlBSRlKd4XaFupHEW-Z4pLVzDR7tuxeW9wjayHVZFXHmLlgKOJUEZRSADGOAYahLsVIjtpSvSugY-_7nlQrZx0R5gjnvarK60rjXno6b8OkaxTbFxJ6kqHqgStWBcog==]

  19. Gwendolyn says:

    Today’s date is July 14, 2009-I just wanted to know when are we going to be able to Exchange The Dinars?

  20. george says:

    I’ve spoke to a bank in canada, that use to carry the dinar , ( from bank of america) .. however they say when the dinar R V’s they will buy the dinar back ! but not until then .

  21. Henry says:

    Translated article
    His Highness the Amir of Kuwait to the United States of America visit
    - The 2-8 (KUNA) – The conservation and care of the God of His Highness
    the Amir Sheikh Sabah Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah Al-Sabah accompanied
    by His Excellency Vice-President of the National Guards Sheikh Meshaal
    Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah, the official delegation accompanying His
    Highness the afternoon today at the airport of Andrews Air Force Base
    United States of America and in the two-day official visit which is his
    official talks with President Barack ObamaPresident of the United
    States of America friendly.
    This was received by His
    Highness the Amir at the airport by Deputy Chief of Protocol at the
    White House, Ms. Laura Wells, the Ambassador of the State of Kuwait to
    the United States Sheikh Salem Abdullah Al Jaber Al Sabah, the
    Ambassador of the United States of America Friends of the State Kuwait Deborah Jones and the ambassadors of Arab countries accredited
    in Washington and heads of offices Kuwait accredited to the United
    States of America friendly.
    This was accompanied by HH the Amir
    of an official delegation of the Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign
    Minister Sheikh Dr. Mohammad Sabah Al-Salem Al-Sabah and Deputy Prime
    Minister for Economic Affairs and Minister of State for Development
    Affairs and Minister of State for Housing Affairs, Sheikh Ahmad Fahd
    al-Ahmad al-Sabah, head of the follow-up the performance of government,
    Sheikh Mohammed Abdullah Al – Sabah and the Director of the Office of
    His Highness the Amir Ahmad Fahd al-Fahd al-Amiri Diwan Advisor Dr.
    Yousef Hamad Al-Ibrahim, Amiri Diwan Advisor Mohammad Abdullah Abu
    al-Hassan and the Chief of Protocol Protocol and the ruler, Sheikh
    Nasser Sabah Al-Abdullah Al-Khaled Al-Sabah and senior officials of the
    Emiri Diwan.
    He accompanied the resolution of safety and travel.
    (End) KUNA 030021 GMT Lago 09
    http://snipurl.com/oma3k [translate_google_com] [http://rs6.net/tn.jsp?et=1102659115630&s=3304&e=001bE6XgVvEnm2fG3mPOo0vWah2RRSIkxI73z8Ap3MScj_XYtYaseVMHCTYKonZsaPKPt7HBbnFC688uujTUi7dZeKtxDs8J9_yKtUrsGoQQjeiSm7qk7eoCv73BVgHpEAkDNivnp4CMfaqx3fysz6iwB14d7gtUgDWLbwh0wyESzM=]

  22. Henry says:

    Translated article:

    Talabani : Meeting with Maliki and Barzani was successful and fruitful

    Political Affairs, 08/03/2009 12:35:00 am
    Mohamed Ghazzi

    BAGHDAD – 2-8 (KUNA) – Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told a joint news conference with Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and the Kurdistan region President Massoud Barzani said the meeting which brought together in northern Iraq on Wednesday was successful and fruitful.

    Talabani said that the meeting discussed several outstanding issues, he said that the size of the largest and broadest of the small differences.

    He said that the federal system of Iraq and the region adheres to the rules of this “If there are interpretations and practices are discussed in a spirit of brotherly Ovakip and on the basis of upholding the Constitution.

    Maliki told the conference that he was agreed to increase the effectiveness of national reconciliation and political process in general, saying “the agreement said that the size of the largest and broadest of the small natural differences and have agreed to the consolidation of national unity and support the political process and the federal system.”

    He stressed that the current government is a government partnership and not a government one component, and the problems we are facing should be solved within the framework of the political process and in accordance with the Constitution. ”

    He said he agreed to support the national unity to protect the political process and democracy and against all internal and external challenges that stand in the way of building the state institutions.

    He said that the constitutionality of Article 140 Article and to all parties and not to another party without the commitment, adding that “there will be agreed upon after a census of the country.”

    He stressed the need for the work of the Joint Committee decision to come to Baghdad to resolve the outstanding issues of disputed areas and the law of oil and gas, and the Peshmerga, “provided that the Kurdish delegation headed by the Committee in the Prime Minister in the province.”

    For his part, said he studied the Bazrani outstanding issues with Maliki and the delegation from the province will go to Baghdad to complete the dialogue and find solutions.

    The Maliki arrived in Sulaymaniyah before noon Thursday at the invitation of Iraq and went immediately after his arrival, accompanied by Talabani to the resort of Dukan, where he met with Barzani.

    Maliki’s visit to the province, the second since he took office in 2006 have been particularly important because they examine problems with the Kurds, especially regarding the oil and the disputed areas. The these areas and the oil-rich Kirkuk, which represented one of the main axes of the dispute between the parties.

    Maliki’s visit comes after the presidential and legislative elections in the province, revealed on the progress of the list (Kurdistan), which form the two Patriotic Union of Kurdistan and the Kurdistan Democratic. And those decision-Maliki to leave tomorrow morning to the city of Halabja, at the conclusion of his visit to the Kurdistan region.

  23. george says:

    i believe the sanctions are the main issue… when they are all lifted ,is when we will see the R V or R I
    iraq must be on the international market ! before this can happen .

  24. Henry Beeson says:


    U.S. support for Kuwait ”s security and territorial integrity “remains unchanged”

    WASHINGTON: On the eve of the planned session of U.N. Security Council, a State Department official affirmed that the U.S. support for Kuwait”s “security and territorial integrity remains unchanged.” The Security Council is set to discuss on Friday the sanctions imposed on Iraq after Saddam Hussein”s invasion of Kuwait .
    The American official, who requested anonymity, told KUNA that his country “appreciates the role that Kuwait has long played in efforts to bring stability to the region.” U.S.ـKuwait relations remain “broad and deep and anchored in our shared commitment to stability and prosperity in the region and beyond,” the U.S. official affirmed.

    He added that his country also supports ” Iraqs ” goal of ending Chapter VII resolutions and we are working to help Iraq to take the necessary steps to that end.” He also voiced belief that; “this will advance the security of the entire region.” “We encourage continued discussions between the governments of Iraq and Kuwait on this and other issues,” the official source stressed. The source welcomed, in particular, Kuwait ”s dispatch of an ambassador to Baghdad “to facilitate this dialogue.”

    Earlier, Foreign Minister Sheikh Dr. Mohammed Sabah AlـSalem AlـSabah said; “We are ready to meet with our Iraqi brothers under the U.N. umbrella, as called upon by the Secretary General to discuss, expedite and facilitate Iraq ”s implementation of the international resolutions, which would speed up Iraq ”s exit of Chapter VII.”
    Sheikh Dr. Mohammed has also affirmed: “We want to help and cooperate with Iraq in this matter and we have agreed to hold several meetings under the U.N. umbrella to help Iraq implement those commitments.”

    At the U.N. Headquarters, diplomatic sources say the council might be moving right now to lift the sanctions while expecting Iraq to sign international norms concerning its weapons of mass destruction.



  25. Gwendolyn says:

    My only concern is when can we cash in (WHEN)?

  26. Henry Beeson says:

    S T R A T F O R
    Iraq Endgame

    August 18, 2009 | 1504 GMT

    By George Friedman

    Though the Iraq war is certainly not over, it has reached a crossroads. During the course of the war, about 40 countries sent troops to fight in what was called “Multi-National Force-Iraq.” As of this summer, only one foreign country’s fighting forces remain in Iraq – those of the United States. A name change in January 2010 will reflect the new reality, when the term “Multi-National Force-Iraq” will be changed to “United States Forces-Iraq.” If there is an endgame in Iraq, we are now in it.

    The plan that U.S. President Barack Obama inherited from former President George W. Bush called for coalition forces to help create a viable Iraqi national military and security force that would maintain the Baghdad government’s authority and Iraq’s territorial cohesion and integrity. In the meantime, the major factions in Iraq would devise a regime in which all factions would participate and be satisfied that their factional interests were protected. While this was going on, the United States would systematically reduce its presence in Iraq until around the summer of 2010, when the last U.S. forces would leave.

    Two provisos qualified this plan. The first was that the plan depended on the reality on the ground for its timeline. The second was the possibility that some residual force would remain in Iraq to guarantee the agreements made between factions, until they matured and solidified into a self-sustaining regime. Aside from minor tinkering with the timeline, the Obama administration – guided by Defense Secretary Robert Gates, whom Bush appointed and Obama retained – has followed the Bush plan faithfully.

    The moment of truth for the U.S. plan is now approaching. The United States still has substantial forces in Iraq. There is a coalition government in Baghdad dominated by Shia (a reasonable situation, since the Shia comprise the largest segment of the population of Iraq). Iraqi security forces are far from world-class, and will continue to struggle in asserting themselves in Iraq. As we move into the endgame, internal and external forces are re-examining power-sharing deals, with some trying to disrupt the entire process.

    There are two foci for this disruption. The first concerns the Arab-Kurdish struggle over Kirkuk. The second concerns threats to Iran’s national security.

    The Kurdish Question
    Fighting continues in the Kirkuk region, where the Arabs and Kurds have a major issue to battle over: oil. The Kirkuk region is one of two major oil-producing regions in Iraq (the other is in the Shiite-dominated south). Whoever controls Kirkuk is in a position to extract a substantial amount of wealth from the surrounding region’s oil development. There are historical ethnic issues in play here, but the real issue is money. Iraqi central government laws on energy development remain unclear, precisely because there is no practical agreement on the degree to which the central government will control – and benefit – from oil development as opposed to the Kurdish Regional Government. Both Kurdish and Arab factions thus continue to jockey for control of the key city of Kirkuk.

    Arab, particularly Sunni Arab, retention of control over Kirkuk opens the door for an expansion of Sunni Arab power into Iraqi Kurdistan. By contrast, Kurdish control of Kirkuk shuts down the Sunni threat to Iraqi Kurdish autonomy and cuts Sunni access to oil revenues from any route other than the Shiite-controlled central government. If the Sunnis get shut out of Kirkuk, they are on the road to marginalization by their bitter enemies – the Kurds and the Shia. Thus, from the Sunni point of view, the battle for Kirkuk is the battle for the Sunni place at the Iraqi table.

    Turkey further complicates the situation in Iraq. Currently embedded in constitutional and political thinking in Iraq is the idea that the Kurds would not be independent, but could enjoy a high degree of autonomy. Couple autonomy with the financial benefits of heavy oil development and the Kurdish autonomous region of Iraq becomes a powerful entity. Add to that the peshmerga, the Kurdish independent military forces that have had U.S. patronage since the 1990s, and an autonomous Kurdistan becomes a substantial regional force. And this is not something Turkey wants to see.
    The broader Kurdish region is divided among four countries, Turkey, Iraq, Iran and Syria. The Kurds have a substantial presence in southeastern Turkey, where Ankara is engaged in a low-intensity war with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), members of which have taken refuge in northern Iraq. Turkey’s current government has adopted a much more nuanced approach in dealing with the Kurdish question. This has involved coupling the traditional military threats with guarantees of political and economic security to the Iraqi Kurds as long as the Iraqi Kurdish leadership abides by Turkish demands not to press the Kirkuk issue.

    Still, whatever the constitutional and political arrangements between Iraqi Kurds and Iraq’s central government, or between Iraqi Kurds and the Turkish government, the Iraqi Kurds have a nationalist imperative. The Turkish expectation is that over the long haul, a wealthy and powerful Iraqi Kurdish autonomous region could slip out of Baghdad’s control and become a center of Kurdish nationalism. Put another way, no matter what the Iraqi Kurds say now about cooperating with Turkey regarding the PKK, over the long run, they still have an interest in underwriting a broader Kurdish nationalism that will strike directly at Turkish national interests.

    The degree to which Sunni activity in northern Iraq is coordinated with Turkish intelligence is unknown to us. The Sunnis are quite capable of waging this battle on their own. But the Turks are not disinterested bystanders, and already support local Turkmen in the Kirkuk region to counter the Iraqi Kurds. The Turks want to see Kurdish economic power and military power limited, and as such they are inherently in favor of the Shiite-dominated Baghdad government. The stronger Baghdad is, the weaker the Kurds will be.

    Baghdad understands something critical: While the Kurds may be a significant fighting force in Iraq, they can’t possibly stand up to the Turkish army. More broadly, Iraq as a whole can’t stand up to the Turkish army. We are entering a period in which a significant strategic threat to Turkey from Iraq could potentially mean Turkish countermeasures. Iraqi memories of Turkish domination during the Ottoman Empire are not pleasant. Therefore, Iraq will be very careful not to cross any redline with the Turks.

    This places the United States in a difficult position. Washington has supported the Kurds in Iraq ever since Operation Desert Storm. Through the last decade of the Saddam regime, U.S. special operations forces helped create a de facto autonomous region in Kurdistan. Washington and the Kurds have a long and bumpy history, now complicated by substantial private U.S. investment in Iraqi Kurdistan for the development of oil resources. Iraqi Kurdish and U.S. interests are strongly intertwined, and Washington would rather not see Iraqi Kurdistan swallowed up by arrangements in Baghdad that undermine current U.S. interests and past U.S. promises.

    On the other hand, the U.S. relationship with Turkey is one of Washington’s most important. Whether the question at hand is Iran, the Caucasus, the Balkans, Central Asia, the Arab-Israeli conflict, Afghanistan, Russia or Iraq, the Turks have a role. Given the status of U.S. power in the region, alienating Turkey is not an option. And the United States must remember that for Turkey, Kurdish power in Iraq and Turkey’s desired role in developing Iraqi oil are issues of fundamental national importance.
    Now left alone to play out this endgame, the United States must figure out a way to finesse the Kurdish issue. In one sense, it doesn’t matter. Turkey has the power ultimately to redefine whatever institutional relationships the United States leaves behind in Iraq. But for Turkey, the sooner Washington hands over this responsibility, the better. The longer the Turks wait, the stronger the Kurds might become and the more destabilizing their actions could be to Turkey. Best of all, if Turkey can assert its influence now, which it has already begun to do, it doesn’t have to be branded as the villain.

    All Turkey needs to do is make sure that the United States doesn’t intervene decisively against the Iraqi Sunnis in the battle over Kirkuk in honor of Washington’s commitment to the Kurds.

    In any case, the United States doesn’t want to intervene against Iraq’s Sunnis again. In protecting Sunni Arab interests, the Americans have already been sidestepping any measures to organize a census and follow through with a constitutional mandate to hold a referendum in Kirkuk. For the United States, a strong Sunni community is the necessary counterweight to the Iraqi Shia since, over the long haul, it is not clear how a Shiite-dominated government will relate to Iran.

    The Shiite Question
    The Shiite-dominated government led by Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is no puppet of Iran, but at the same time, it is not Iran’s enemy. As matters develop in Iraq, Iran remains the ultimate guarantor of Shiite interests. And Iranian support might not flow directly to the current Iraqi government, but to al-Maliki’s opponents within the Shiite community who have closer ties to Tehran. It is not clear whether Iranian militant networks in Iraq have been broken, or are simply lying low. But it is clear that Iran still has levers in place with which it could destabilize the Shiite community or rivals of the Iraqi Shia if it so desired.

    Therefore, the United States has a vested interest in building up the Iraqi Sunni community before it leaves. And from an economic point of view, that means giving the Sunnis access to oil revenue as well as a guarantee of control over that revenue after the United States leaves.

    With the tempo of attacks picking up as U.S. forces draw down, Iraq’s Sunni community is evidently not satisfied with the current security and political arrangements in Iraq. Attacks are on the upswing in the northern areas – where remnants of al Qaeda in Iraq continue to operate in Mosul – as well as in central Iraq in and around Baghdad. The foreign jihadists in Iraq hope such attacks will trigger a massive response from the Shiite community, thus plunging Iraq back into civil war. But the foreign jihadists would not be able to operate without some level of support from the local Sunni community. This broader community wants to make sure that the Shia and Americans don’t forget what the Sunnis are capable of should their political, economic and security interests fall by the wayside as the Americans withdraw.

    Neither the Iraqi Sunnis nor the Kurds really want the Americans to leave. Neither trust that the intentions or guarantees of the Shiite-dominated government. Iraq lacks a tradition of respect for government institutions and agreements; a piece of paper is just that. Instead, the Sunnis and Kurds see the United States as the only force that can guarantee their interests. Ironically, the United States is now seen as the only real honest broker in Iraq.

    But the United States is an honest broker with severe conflicts of interest. Satisfying both Sunni and Kurdish interests is possible only under three conditions. The first is that Washington exercise a substantial degree of control over the Shiite administration of the country – and particularly over energy laws – for a long period of time. The second is that the United States give significant guarantees to Turkey that the Kurds will not extend their nationalist campaign to Turkey, even if they are permitted to extend it to Iran in a bid to destabilize the Iranian regime. The third is that success in the first two conditions not force Iran into a position where it sees its own national security at risk, and so responds by destabilizing Baghdad – and with it, the entire foundation of the national settlement in Iraq negotiated by the United States.

    The American strategy in this matter has been primarily tactical. Wanting to leave, it has promised everyone everything. That is not a bad strategy in the short run, but at a certain point, everyone adds up the promises and realizes that they can’t all be kept, either because they are contradictory or because there is no force to guarantee them. Boiled down, this leaves the United States with two strategic options.

    First, the United States can leave a residual force of about 20,000 troops in Iraq to guarantee Sunni and Kurdish interests, to protect Turkish interests, etc. The price of pursuing this option is that it leaves Iran facing a nightmare scenario: e.g., the potential re-emergence of a powerful Iraq and the recurrence down the road of the age-old conflict between Persia and Mesopotamia – with the added possibility of a division of American troops supporting their foes. This would pose an existential threat to Iran, forcing Tehran to use covert means to destabilize Iraq that would take advantage of a minimal, widely dispersed U.S. force vulnerable to local violence.
    Second, the United States could withdraw and allow Iraq to become a cockpit for competition among neighboring countries: Turkey, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Syria – and ultimately major regional powers like Russia. While chaos in Iraq is not inherently inconsistent with U.S. interests, it is highly unpredictable, meaning the United States could be pulled back into Iraq at the least opportune time and place.

    The first option is attractive, but its major weakness is the uncertainty created by Iran. With Iran in the picture, a residual force is as much a hostage as a guarantor of Sunni and Kurdish interests. With Iran out of the picture, the residual U.S. force could be smaller and would be more secure. Eliminate the Iran problem completely, and the picture for all players becomes safer and more secure. But eliminating Iran from the equation is not an option – Iran most assuredly gets a vote in this endgame.

  27. lyn says:

    So fast forward October 10, what is the update?

  28. george says:

    iraq people are out in the street protesting… asking the gov. to move ! and stop draging there a… on the ground….. things are happening but very slowly..to slow for many of us !

  29. Henry says:

    S T R A T F O R
    G L O B A L I N T E L L I G E N C E

    Iraq: Oil Output Will Grow To 7 Million BPD – Oil Minister
    October 12, 2009

    Iraq intends to increase its oil output within the next six years to 7 million barrels per day at its West Qurna, az-Zubair and Rumaila fields, Iraqi Oil Minister Hussein Shahristani said Oct. 12, RIA Novosti reported. Shahristani said foreign investment could bring in $100 billion, and Iraq’s Oil Ministry has been considering proposals from LUKoil and Exxon Mobil on the West Qurna field. He added that talks between the Iraqi Oil Ministry and Russia’s LUKoil could begin by Oct. 14.

  30. Henry says:

    UPDATE 2-Iraq studying new Exxon, Lukoil West Qurna bids

    Sun Oct 11, 2009 10:55am EDT

    * Iraq mulling new bids for oilfield deals offered in June
    * Offers expected from Exxon, Lukoil, Total, ENI
    * Decision expected on bids next month

    By Ahmed Rasheed
    BAGHDAD, Oct 11 (Reuters) – Iraq’s Oil Ministry is considering revised offers from Exxon Mobil (XOM.N) and Lukoil (LKOH.MM) for West Qurna, one of several oilfields for which Iraq failed to secure a developer in a June auction.

    The auction was the centrepiece of Iraq’s efforts to revive its lucrative but crumbling oil sector, battered by years of war and sanctions. Of eight fields offered, only one deal was signed after firms balked at the Oil Ministry’s stiff payment terms.

    “The Iraqi Oil Ministry is studying new offers from Exxon Mobil and Lukoil for West Qurna phase 1,” Abdul-Mahdy al-Ameedi, deputy director of the ministry’s contracts and licensing directorate, told Reuters on Sunday.

    Iraq also expects an offer from France’s Total (TOTF.PA) for West Qurna, and says it has received another bid from Italy’s ENI (ENI.MI) for Zubair, which also went unawarded in June. West Qurna phase 1 has reserves of 8.7 billion barrels while Zubair’s reserves are estimated at 4 billion barrels.

    “We have had talks with ENI on Zubair (and) ENI has submitted a new offer,” he said.
    It was unclear whether Iraq had sweetened the original contracts to lure back bidders. The country relies on oil sales for almost all its income and desperately needs to boost revenues to rebuild its dilapidated infrastructure.

    The only long-term service contract awarded in June went to Britain’s BP (BP.L) and China’s CNPC, who agreed to a remuneration fee of $2 per barrel to develop super-giant field Rumaila.

    Ameedi said that Exxon and Lukoil had agreed to a remuneration fee of $1.90 per barrel for West Qurna, but that negotiations over other terms were ongoing.
    Iraq aims to offer another 10 oilfields to oil majors in December, and has said the signature fee for those contracts — a payment to secure the right to develop the block — would be less than the $500 million charged for Rumaila, although, unlike the Rumaila terms, the money would not be returned.

    Iraq expects to make a final decision on the revised West Qurna and Zubair bids next month, Ameedi said. Exxon is also expected to make a new offer for Zubair, he said, but would first wait to see the results of its Qurna bid.

    Investment in Iraq’s oil sector has been dogged by a lack of updated hydrocarbon laws, whose passage has been hampered by a spat between Baghdad and Iraq’s semi-autonomous Kurdish region over the right to sign oil deals and a host of other issues.

    The row is seen as more likely to scare off smaller firms from investing in Iraq rather than the oil majors the government has invited to bid in its contract auctions.

    Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani said that foreign firms’ investment in West Qurna phase 1, Zubair and Rumaila would bring Iraq $100 billion, according to an Oil Ministry spokesman. The minister also forecast that three fields’ combined output would reach 7 million barrels a day in six years, the spokesman said.

    (Writing by Mohammed Abbas and Missy Ryan; Editing by Jack Kimball and Simon Jessop) © Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.

    Thomson Reuters Article

  31. Henry says:

    Rumors :

    Hey all,

    Sonny told me he was posting this and I just got back to take a look at what he posted. I was driving while I told hiim about the last meeting and I think I forgot to mention one key thing – before they dismissed our contact from the room, they were starting to discus a couple of key things that had to happen before the RV could happen.

    As it was related to me, the RV is not possible at this moment until 2 things happened. As you saw in one of my comments on the DS blog (www.DinarSpeculation.com), we are 95% confirmed on exactly what those two things entail and we will be sharing that with the members once we are 100% confirmed.

    As one poster said in this thread already, complete transparency could very well screw this up for everyone, just like it did with the company that told their investors to call their bank. I will not risk losing this very valuable source by giving out too much – I hope that you can all trust that Sonny nor I have ever predicted an RV, we have never made false promises that didn’t come true, and we are just as skeptical as the rest of you. for now, we all have to be patient… I will tell you that true confirmation of these contingencies may involve a little “rule bending” on our source’s part”.

    I’m looking forward to getting to know more of you as time goes on, but until the RV happens… I have a family and a full time job, my main source of information is on a completely different time zone (Baghdad), and I’m not here to “pump” anyone up with false “intel”… so I’ll be around when I have important news, and also in the chat at scheduled times to discuss key events and facts. Please note I said facts.

    Thanks, and god bless!

  32. Henry says:



    I have also heard about the 3rd.. and I guess we will see what happens. I am hoping this time it pans out. At this point in time I would be happy if it rv-ed at 1.50.. as far as oh. wow brain fart.. I think its time to go to sleep.

  33. Henry says:



    Hello all, finally after 5 years we have info coming out of the cbi. I know that most will not believe this, and i dont blame you after all the b.s thats floating on the net. All the credit goes to Adam Montana, for the last month Adam has been recieving e-mails on his Dinar Speculation news site from a fellow claiming to be from cbi. Of course Adam as all would, did not believe him. After telling this guy through an e-mail that he didnt believe him, the guy said he would e-mail him from work. The next day Adam recieved an e-mail from cbi. Adam still not thinking something was right used his IP tracker, and sure shit came from baghdad with a cbi web address. Now that i explained that, this gentleman has been full of useful info. First he explained that it is revaluing and sooner than we think (of course we expect this anytime but doesnt know that we are 24/7 on this) he is an understudy of one of the directors. I will not be using any names nor will i ever. He also stated that many iraqis are holding dinar, but will not spend because they do realize what is happening and dont want to get rid of dinar knowing that it will rv. He said it has been that way for a little over a year now! He also stated that there are two things that have been holding it up, and one has to do with natural gas, he wasnt sure of the other, but said at this point it has been worked out and nothing is standing in the way of a rv! He has been stock-piling dinar for the last two years going hungry on occasion, but will not spend one note. He also stated that there is smaller denoms and will be released after the rv, and there was no tent exchanging dinar like rumors have stated. He is in on most of the meetings, but there are a few things that he cant get in on. Two weeks ago he was in a meeting and they were discussing the rv and its importance, but when it got time to talk about a rate they asked four of them to leave and our boy was one of them. He has heard that it will be close to the u.s dollar because all oil is paid in u.s.d but would not commit on a rate. Now i know what i am saying here seems like total b.s and like i said earlier i dont blame anyone for feeling this way. I have first hand seen these e-mails and seen them tracked to iraq. So i am putting this on here as 100% fact. Adam gets so much information, that he will be starting a chat on newdinarchat.com that will be officially open next friday, and Adam and i will be updating daily what goes on with this intel, and Adam will come clean with all the info he has been getting over the last 2-3 months. Thanks for your time

  34. Muhammad says:

    I emailed to President Barack Obama on Thursday 22 of October 2009, as follows:

    Just look at China’s currency rate since the day it was revalued after communism was fading away. Why is her currency rate still remaining very low despite it is still rising slowly? Their cheap labour to worldwide’s markets is killing numerous businesses in the west by creating more redundancies, every year. One of the giants called Maersk in the shipping business is heading towards hell. Why? Could China’s cheap offers spoil the markets of the west? Of course! If the currency rate of Iraqi Dinars is not revalued asap, Iraq will be the next “China” to kill the world economy of the west within a few years’ time due to cheap labour as well. Is not “Once beaten twice shy” sufficient to feel the pain of repeated economic downturn particularly in the west? Truly, “An ounce of prevention is worth more than a pound of cure” should be a good advice to “Procrastinators”. Please be forewarned that Iraqis are shrewd, if not a cunning fox like the many Chinese in China.

    Please revalue Iraqi Dinars asap, Mr President!

  35. Henry says:

    Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, are pressing the United Nations for failing to drive Iraq from Chapter VII

    On: Thursday 22-10-2009 07:37 صباحا

    Prime Iraqi Center for Development Information Adnan OS that Saudi Arabia is pressing the United Nations for not adopting a resolution to oust Iraq from Chapter VII.

    Sarraj said in a statement to Al-Alam News Wednesday: in the fact that Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, which are pressuring the United Nations for not adopting a resolution to remove Iraq from Chapter VII.

    He added: “We are suffering the reality of the Arab neighbors, particularly Kuwait. That insist on keeping Iraq under Chapter VII and there are numerous consultations between Iraq and Kuwait will transfer the compensation to Kuwaiti investments in Iraq, especially that Iraq is a country wide for investment by these countries.

    He explained that Iraq has fulfilled all its obligations and acknowledge all the conventions that make Iraq pay, especially to neighboring countries, especially Kuwait damage of the war waged by the former regime and the Iraqi people bear the consequences now.

    He stressed that Iraq OS has been struggling to emerge from Chapter VII in cooperation with the countries of the world and added: “The Prime Minister of Iraq view this project a strong committee was formed between the United States and Iraq to help it emerge from Chapter VII after Lavoie Iraq with all its obligations.

    He explained that the visit of Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki to the United States came to attend the investment conference of the ministries and Iraqi companies in cooperation with the countries of the world.

  36. Henry says:

    CNBC Video: Is now the time to invest in Iraq
    Is Now the Time to Invest?


  37. Henry says:

    Germany to host Iraq investment conference: embassy BAGHDAD, Oct 22, 2009

    (AFP) – Germany will host a two-day investment conference for Iraq in Berlin next month, the country’s embassy in Baghdad told AFP on Thursday. “The conference will take place on the 5th and the 6th of November in Berlin,” said Luay al-Rubaie, secretary to the German ambassador.

    The United States and Britain have already hosted investment conferences for the war-torn country, which is desperately in need of cash injections as it struggles to rebuild its economy.

    Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki attended the latest conference in Washington on Tuesday and Wednesday, which followed a similar meeting in London in May.
    Finance Minister Baqer Jabr Solagh estimated last November that Iraq needed 400 billion dollars to rebuild the country, a figure the government is unlikely to be able to afford.

    This month, the cabinet approved a 67-billion-dollar annual budget for 2010, the vast majority of which is earmarked for government salaries, leaving little left over for other projects.

  38. Henry says:

    Remarks at the U.S.-Iraq Business and Investment Conference
    Hillary Rodham Clinton
    Secretary of State
    Hyatt Regency
    Washington, DC
    October 20, 2009


  39. Madeleine Ayotte says:


    Haven’t left any comments for a long time, however, I wish to tell you that I appreciate your time and dedication for doing this. There certainly seems to be a lot of action going on and a possible r.v. soon.

    Much appreciation for those that provide info to this post/blog and a very special thank you to Henry…good work man, always enjoy your posts!!!

  40. Henry says:

    We hope to see tomorrow, the end of the crisis over the election law

    Said the head of the solidarity in the House of Representatives Kassem Daoud said the negotiations are still continuing on the election law and expressed the hope to see tomorrow, end of the crisis on the issue of Kirkuk.

    He said Dawood in contact with the agency independent press (Iba) on Wednesday, “I hope to see the light of the electoral law a new beginning of next week.”

    The United Nations and the Independent Higher Commission for the elections were the heads of parliamentary blocs Hatoa note that it is technically not possible to return the records of 2004, as it can not verify the voter registration now because of time constraints.

    He pointed out that this has led to a new image on the proposals submitted, out of the proposed “to the proposed endoscopic practice.”

    David confirmed that it will be elections in Iraq, according to the existing open, multi-constituency, and relying on voter records for the year 2009, to be withdrawn subject of scrutiny in the records to a later period after the elections.

    He stressed that the situation is apt to evolve towards a complete solution on the subject, expected to testify tomorrow or early next week to vote on amendments to the electoral law.

    The House has so far failed to vote on the amendments made to the electoral law because of the differences between the parliamentary blocs on many of the paragraphs, especially the issue of Kirkuk.

  41. Henry says:

    Iraq to Vote on Kirkuk Balloting Guidelines
    By VOA News
    28 October 2009

    A member of the Iraqi parliament’s legal committee, Salim Abdullah al-Jibouri, says lawmakers have agreed to vote by Thursday on balloting guidelines for the oil-rich northern region of Kirkuk.

    A stalemate over the issue of voting guidelines for Kirkuk, an ethnically mixed region that includes Kurdish, Arab and Turkmen communities, has been jeopardizing nationwide elections scheduled for January 16.

    Iraqi parliament holds a special parliament session in Baghdad (File)

    Among the issues the lawmakers will decide is whether to use current voter records for Kirkuk or a voter registry dating back to 2004. The United Nations has proposed using the 2009 voter records, and that option is supported by the Kurds. Arab lawmakers favor using the 2004 registry.

    Last week, a U.N. special envoy, Ad Melkert, involved in the negotiations warned that further delays could undermine both the scheduled date and the credibility of the elections.

    In April, the United Nations presented a report on reducing ethnic tensions and resolving territorial disputes in areas such as Kirkuk. The report outlined four possible options for the province.

    It said all of the options were developed with the Iraqi constitution in mind and all of the proposals required a political agreement and some form of a referendum.

  42. Jay says:

    I really appreciate what Darren has done and is doing. Bring people to this information blog to share what we each know and are willing to share makes me feel that we are truly brothers in the same cause. I really appreciare all the great information that Henry has been sharing here. I have been a part of the Dinar program since 2003 and continue to study and pray for the day that the World Bank, IMF and the ICC make a decision to place the Iraq Dinar as an International Currency. It really doesn’t matter where the reval starts we all know that the Dinar is tied to the US Dollar and will be a par with the Dollar in the near future. It was very good news to hear our Sec. of State. Mrs. Clinton make this conment in her recent speech in Bagdad. “The State Department takes the lead on our relationship and we will pursue several key goals. First, working to aid the Iraqi Government in its efforts to promote national unity and resolve political conflicts, such as disputes over Kirkuk. Second, we will support Iraq’s efforts to build strong relationships with its neighbors in the region. Third, we will promote the return and resettlement of Iraqi refugees and internally displaced people, a critical step for healing society. And fourth, we will support Iraq’s economic development and full integration into the global economy”.
    The 4th point relly got my intention. “FULL INTERGARTION INTO THE GLOBAL ECONOMY”. There is no way a Country can be part of a Global Economy without it’s own Currency.
    And I jsu happen to know that the Clinton’s purchased $3 million dollar of the Dinar back when it was selling for 1/10 of a US Cent. Tell me she is not waiting like the rest of us for a REVAL.
    Just think what putting 9 TRILLION Iraq Dinar into the world Monetary System.

  43. Henry says:

    S T R A T F O R

    Iraq: Parliament Does Not Address Election Legislation

    October 29, 2009

    Iraq’s parliament met Oct. 29 but did not vote on legislation pertaining to the Jan. 16, 2010, parliamentary elections, DPA reported. Iraq’s constitution dictates that the parliamentary elections must take place by the end of January. Legislators reportedly are required to give election workers 90 days to prepare for the elections, and the October 15 deadline has been missed.

  44. rocky road says:

    How do all of you get these dates

  45. Henry says:

    Iraqi Drilling Company plans to drill 180 oil wells in 2010

    The director of the Iraqi Drilling Company Idris Yasiri the company would drill 180 oil wells in 2010.

    The Yasiri in a press statement that 30 of the wells to be drilled next year will be in the northern oil fields and 150 in the south to add approximately 360 thousand barrels of oil per day production capacity of Iraq.

    The Yasiri that the number of new wells next year will exceed the total number of what has been excavated since 2003, and each well will add two thousand barrels per day.

    Iraq has signed agreements worth billions of dollars with international oil companies as may be possible to increase production to about 3-fold to about 7 million barrels a day, bringing Iraq to the third largest crude oil producers in the world.


  46. Henry says:

    Political first: 45 international companies are competing to invest on 10 oil fields
    Ministry of Oil: Friday and Saturday, 45 international companies are competing to invest on 10 oil fields

    The ministry spokesman Assem Jihad said in a statement the “morning”, said 45 companies from among 120 international companies will compete in the second round of licenses to develop oil fields discovered ten undeveloped.

    He stressed that companies representing 23 countries were selected according to the best specifications for the development of oil fields in the country, adding that the ministry expects large turnout and competition for investment as shown by the size of the share that witnessed at the Istanbul Conference, held recently in this regard.

    He noted that during the Friday and Saturday receive and open tenders of companies eligible to compete on service contracts for oil fields covered by the ten-second licensing round, stressing that the opening of the tenders will be in the ministry’s headquarters in an open and transparent. And Jihad, said the fields are the Majnoon and West Qurna “second stage” in the province of Basra and Maysan, in the Halfayah Gharraf in Dhi Qar and rump and West Kifl and Morgan in the Middle Euphrates region and east of Baghdad in Baghdad and Qayyarah and star in Nineveh, Badra border in Wasit province, in addition to the set of fields in the eastern province Diyala, a Khashm Red Naoduman, moon and hooks.

    He pointed out that the Jihad development of oil fields within the proposed licensing rounds will increase exports of Iraqi crude oil to seven million barrels per day over the next six years, noting that the country will jump from eleventh place currently occupied by the oil-producing countries to third place through the oil investment. The Oil Ministry has set up the end of the first licensing round last June with the participation of 32 companies of different nationalities to develop the fields of North and South Rumaila, Zubair, West Qurna in the province of Basra, Bazargan, Abu Fakkah West and in the province of Maysan, the fields of Kirkuk and Bai Hassan, which produce more than 80 percent of total production of Iraqi oil, in addition to the two fields Ghaziin, but the tour ended with an agreement to invest Rumaila only by a coalition of British company BP and Chinese CANC chaired by the first.

  47. Henry says:

    S T R A T F O R
    U.S.: Gates Travels To Iraq

    December 10, 2009

    Defense Secretary Robert Gates traveled to Baghdad in an unannounced visit from Kabul to meet with Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and other officials, The Washington Post reported Dec. 10. The visit was planned before a recent outbreak of violence. A Pentagon spokesman said Gates will express his condolences to victims of the violence and offer the Iraqi government with assistance; congratulate Iraqi leaders on a new law that has scheduled March 7 elections; and press for speedy formation of a new government.

  48. Henry says:

    Iraq to auction oilfields in bid to become major producer (AFP)
    9 December 2009

    BAGHDAD – Major foreign oil firms will converge on Baghdad Friday for an auction of 10 oilfields as Iraq bids to ramp up output dramatically and become one of the world’s biggest crude producers. The December 11-12 bid round comes just days after a spate of bombings rocked Baghdad and killed 127 people, underlining the fragile security situation in a country still recovering from years of war and sanctions. The oil ministry insisted, however, that the attacks would not affect the auction.
    Iraq relies heavily on oil sales for economic growth and government revenues, and ministers will be hoping the bid round generates positive headlines ahead of a general election slated for March 7.

    “It (the auction) is of enormous importance,” Alex Munton, Middle East Analyst at research group Wood Mackenzie told AFP. “It has the potential to make a very substantial addition to Iraq’s production capacity.” “You’re talking about some of the largest fields in the world – opportunities like this simply don’t exist anywhere else.”

    The biggest oilfields on offer in the bid round, which follows a similar auction in June, are the giant West Qurna-2 and Majnoon fields, which have estimated reserves of 12.9 and 12.6 billion barrels of oil respectively. Some 44 foreign energy companies will also have an opportunity to bid on two other major fields – East Baghdad and Halfaya – which have reserves of 8.1 and 4.1 billion barrels.

    Majnoon is situated in southern Iraq, near the Iranian border, while West Qurna-2 is slightly further west and Halfaya further north. Among the companies involved are energy giants BP, ExxonMobil, Chevron, Total and Shell, along with multiple Chinese and Indian firms, a sign of those countries’ rising oil demand.

    “International oil companies have realised by now that the second bid round is their last chance to get into the country,” said Ruba Husari, the Baghdad-based founder and editor of http://www.iraqoilforum.com.

    “As a result there will be a big competition.”
    The auction kicks off just three days after five co-ordinated bombings struck Baghdad on Tuesday, mostly targeting government ministries, the third such attack since August. Oil ministry spokesman Assem Jihad insisted, however, that the attacks would not derail the new bid round.

    “Preparations for the auction are ongoing,” he told AFP. “The explosions will not have any effect on the procedures or the auction. In fact, there is an even stronger insistence that we hold the auction.”

    This year marks the first time foreign energy firms have had the opportunity to plant a foot firmly in Iraq since the Iraq Petroleum Company was nationalised by the Baath party in 1972, seven years before now-executed dictator Saddam Hussein took power.

    Successful companies will be paid a fixed fee per barrel, not a share of the profits, and the fee will only be paid once an agreed production threshold is reached.
    The first bid round in June ended poorly as only one deal was reached at the time, with BP and China’s CNPC, because of a perceived low return on investment offered by the Iraqi government

    Since then, however, two other foreign consortia have agreed to the tough terms and signed agreements with Baghdad, which wants to boost production to seven million barrels of oil per day (bpd) within six years, from the current level of 2.4 million barrels.

    In the longer term, oil minister Hussein al-Shahristani is targeting 10 to 12 million bpd, which would rival Saudi Arabia in terms of overall output. “The June auction proved that Iraq is open for business but only on its own terms,” Husari told AFP. “The fact that it desperately needs foreign help does not mean it’s not giving anything away.”

    The upcoming bid round differs from the earlier one in that most of the fields on offer this month are not producing any oil at present, whereas most of the projects available in June involved increasing existing output.

    Iraq has the world’s third-largest proven oil reserves of 115 billion barrels, behind only Saudi Arabia and Iran. Oil sales provide 85 percent of government revenues.
    However, there has been little exploration or development of fields in the past three decades because of wars and an embargo imposed on Iraq in 1990 following Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait.


  49. Henry says:

    R E U T E R S

    Iraq to tie up big oil investment, leaving little for Iran

    The geopolitical power balance in the Middle East faces upheaval if Iraq succeeds in tripling oil output, and fellow Shi’ite power Iran will feel more threatened than rival Sunni oil giant Saudi Arabia. Iraq’s potential leap into the ranks of the top three global oil producers could result in a strengthened Shi’ite Muslim front within OPEC if Baghdad aligns supply policy with Tehran.

    That would rattle Riyadh, already suspicious of the rise to political supremacy of Iraq’s Shi’ite majority since the fall of Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein. Disunity within OPEC could increase, undermining efforts to present an image of harmony. But oil development in Iraq is more likely to feed tensions with Iran, draw away potential foreign investment from Iraq’s neighbour and fuel social discord by depriving Tehran of much-needed money should it result in lower oil prices. Revenue from the additional 4.5 million or more barrels per day that Iraq is hoping to pump could also give it the economic might to challenge Iran’s influence over the Shi’ite world.

    “Iraq’s development is inevitable,” said analyst Gala Riana of IHS Global Insight. “The changes in the balance of power won’t be immediate, they are longer term and bring difficulties that Iraq and surrounding countries will need to deal with.”


    Both Iraq and Iran need huge investment in their dilapidated oil industries. Iraq’s opening to global energy firms, albeit on tough terms, gives it the edge in attracting the billions it needs to execute oilfield development of an unprecedented scale. That would make it harder for Tehran to attract the cash it needs at a time when the Iranian state is already under enormous social and political pressure following the contested re-election of hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. Even worse, Chinese state energy giants are participating in Iraq, leaving them less resources for elsewhere. Tehran has turned to Asian state firms for money and technology as Western companies have shunned it due to politics and sanctions.

    “Why would you want to invest in Iran? It’s very risky. You have the sanctions and the politics. If you’re in Iraq, you would want to limit your exposure to another risky country in the region,” said a senior western oil executive.

    Iran could well become the destination for those that lose out in Iraq’s oil auctions, he added. If all of the contracts Baghdad is offering are signed, Iraq could boost its output capacity to 10 million bpd – rivalling Saudi Arabia’s 12.5 million bpd and Russia’s 10 million bpd, and leapfrogging over Iran, which says it can pump 4.2 million bpd. Iran is more dependent than top oil exporter Saudi Arabia on high oil prices to finance social spending programmes. Higher output from Iraq would be bearish in the long term for the oil price and could also claw away market share from others.

    “Another price downturn like that of last winter would really put the squeeze on the Iranian government, already suffering unpopularity from economic mismanagement, as well as the obvious political problems stemming from the election,” said David Mack, a former U.S. envoy to the Middle East.


    Saudi Arabia will watch the rise of Iraqi oil power and its relationship with Tehran with caution. Dominated by the puritanical Wahhabi sect, many of whose adherents view Shi’ites as apostates, Riyadh regards Persian Iran as its arch-foe. But analysts say the view that post-Saddam Iraq is under the sway of Iran is often overstated. Many of Iraq’s Shi’ite leaders sought shelter in Tehran under Saddam, but Iraqi nationalism runs strong, as do memories of the 8-year Iran-Iraq war that killed a million people.

    Even if a general election next year ushers in an overtly pro-Iranian government in Baghdad, the impact that increased Iraqi oil output might have on economic and political tensions inside Iran may drive the two neighbours apart, analysts say. Ultimately, staunch U.S. ally Saudi Arabia would rather see a developing and prosperous Iraq than a country that serves as a base for al Qaeda. The kingdom has become entangled in neighbour Yemen’s internal conflict and deepening instability.

    “It’s in our interest that Iraq emerges stable, we don’t want another Yemen,” said one Saudi official. “If Iraq becomes a regional economic power, that will help the Saudi economy.”

  50. Henry says:

    Ukraine, Iraq: $2.5 Billion Arms Deal Secured
    S T R A T F O R

    December 9, 2009

    Ukraine’s largest arms deal to date has been secured in a $2.5 billion project with Iraq that will impact more than 80 Ukrainian firms, AP and DPA reported Dec. 9, citing Kiev lawmakers. The orders include 420 BTR-4 armored personnel carriers, six AN-32B military transport planes and other military hardware, said a senior parliamentary member. UkrSpetsExport is handling the contracts

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