- Billy Giles Interview – CD – Shown Actual Size
Former Secretary of State of the USA Dr Condoleezza Rice had visit Iraq in May of 2005. During this visit the World Bank, Dr Rice, and the IMF met to discuss what the Dinar could be backed at during a revaluation. Here were their respective endorsements and in US dollar/cents:
Opening Rates Debate – Iraq May 2005
.20 Cents – The World Bank
.40 Cents – IMF
.82 Cents – USA (Condoleezza Rice)
Now, assuming a revaluation of a mere 1 cent would give everyone right now a 10X return on investment I’m going to use 1 penny as the minimum opening rate as this is what Billy Giles and I have agreed as would be an absolute minimum.
Now there are three phases in my mind for a revaluation. These 3 phases have objectives tied to them as follows:
Revaluation Phases
Phase 1 – Before Reval – Objective: Maximize Dinar value and oil production before the revaluation.
Phase 2 – The Revaluation – Choose an opening rate/date that will be funded 100% and will grow
Phase 3 – Immediately After The Revaluation – Kuwait’s Dinar reval rate almost doubled immediately
Now, with that being said. It should be no surprise that all supporting Governments in countries around the world would have a stash of Dinar. The USA Government believes in the success of Iraq and has Dinar as proven in the Billy Giles Interview in the DrDinar Home Study Course and also in the DrDinar Report Version 3.
The media does not always hear of news first. Especially if there is a non-disclosure involved and something ‘slips out’ during an interview.
When Condoleezza Rice endorsed a rate of .82 cents we must assume that the USA Dinar stash including a profit forecast of George Bush Jr’s notorious shipment was equated into such rate. Therefore allowing .82 Cents to the Dinar to not be a total farce.
Revaluation Exchange House Fees
Now despite what the opening rate will be, the local banks that will exchange Iraq Dinar for you during and after the revaluation will charge a nominal fee anywhere from 3% to 6% just as they do with any other world currency conversion. They need to make money so that’s why they do it.
Who gets the lower 3% rate? Let me tell you, high volume exchanges, and GROUPS. At DrDinar we will be negotiating group revaluation rates for possibly all our site members including basic free members.
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Written by Darren Chabluk, sign up for the
site launch Priority Notification if you have
not already done so at http://DrDinar.com
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Al-Maliki promises no delay in US troop withdrawal
BAGHDAD (AP) – Iraq’s prime minister is vowing there will be no delay in the withdrawal of U.S. troops despite an Iraqi political dispute that is expected to force a January vote to be postponed.
But in an interview with The Associated Press, Nouri al-Maliki warned that the dispute threatens national security. And he harshly criticized the Sunni Arab vice president who vetoed a key election law.
The United States has factored Iraq’s election plan into the pace of its troop withdrawal, including the end of the military’s combat mission by the end of August. Still, the U.S. military has said the schedule is on track for now, and al-Maliki said the 2011 date for a full pullout was “sacred and final.”
Most American forces have already deployed to outlying bases from urban areas.
(Copyright Associated Press, All Rights Reserved)
http://www.9news.com/rss/article.aspx?storyid=127782
Reuters – [11/28/2009]
Iraq drilling firm to drill 180 wells in 2010
Fri Nov 27, 2009 5:09am ESTBy Aref Mohammed
BASRA, Iraq (Reuters) – The state-run Iraq Drilling Company plans to drill 180 oil wells in 2010, and will be able to drill more than 250 new wells every year from 2011 onwards, the head of the company said.
Thirty of the new wells planned for 2010 will be in northern oilfields and 150 in the south, adding roughly 360,000 barrels of oil per day to Iraq’s output capacity, Iraqi Drilling Company director Idrees al-Yassiri told Reuters in an interview. The number of new wells next year will exceed the total number drilled in the 6-1/2 years since the U.S. invasion, he said on Thursday.
“The approximate production that each well will add is 2,000 barrels per day, that is, they will together add 360,000 barrels per day and this will means additional revenue of billions of dollars for Iraq,” Yassiri said.
“In 2011 the production capacity of the Iraq Drilling Company will exceed 250 wells annually.” He added the company would have 40 drilling towers compared to the 18 it had when Saddam Hussein was in charge. Half of the towers had already been put to work and the rest would follow in 2010.
Iraq currently produces around 2.5 million bpd, and has struggled to ramp up production because its oil infrastructure has been left in a state of decay after decades of war, sanctions and underinvestment.
BIG CHANGE AHEAD
That may soon change. The country is in the process of signing multibillion-dollar deals with global oil majors that will nearly triple crude output to 7 million bpd and transform it into the third-largest crude producer in the world.
The first agreement finalized is for BP and China’s CNPC to develop Rumaila, Iraq’s largest oilfield. It was the only contract successfully bid on at Iraq’s first tender of oilfield deals in June.
Subsequent negotiations have led to initial agreements for an Eni-led group to develop Zubair and an Exxon Mobil-led group to take on West Qurna Phase One.
A second auction of oilfield contracts for 10 largely undeveloped fields will take place December 11-12. The drilling program spoken of by Yassiri appeared to be separate to those deals. He did not elaborate.
Oil Minister Hussain al-Shahristani has said Iraq will not sit by idly, leaving all the work to foreign firms, but would push on with its own plans to boost output.
Yassiri said the Iraq Drilling Company had drilled 22 new wells in an oilfield bordering Kuwait, aimed at preventing “leakage” across the border. It had also drilled one new well on the Iranian border and rehabilitated another. Iraq is in talks with both Kuwait and Iran over shared oilfields.
(Writing by Deepa Babington and Michael Christie; Editing by James Jukwey)
© Thomson Reuters 2009. All rights reserved.
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=10998
Iraq seeks full WTO membership during conf. Monday
29/11/2009 – 16:14
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraq will attend the World Trade Organization (WTO) ministerial conference to be held in Geneva on Monday within third-round negotiations to be granted full membership in the world body, according to an Iraqi Trade Ministry media source on Sunday.
“A delegation from the higher national committee led by Acting Trade Minister Safaa al-Din al-Safi will be attending the three-day WTO ministerial conference. The delegation will discuss ways to have Iraq obtain full-fledged membership instead of its current observer status,” Faraj al-Jaafari told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
Iraq had held two rounds of talks with the WTO secretariat in Geneva during the ministerial conference, the seventh one which comes four years after the last meeting held in Hong Kong in 2005.
Taking part in the gathering will be ministers of trade from 153 member states in addition to ministers from countries that have observer status and seek full membership in addition to representatives of relevant international organizations like the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), the Islamic Development Bank (IDB) in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, the Arab Monetary Fund (AMF) in Abu Dhabi, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and other government and non-government agencies.
Established in 1995, the WTO has stemmed from the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) that was set up in the aftermath of World War II.
GATT was signed by 23 nations at a trade conference in 1947 and became effective in 1948. The 1994 GATT pact also provided for establishment of the WTO, which took over GATT’s functions.
http://en.aswataliraq.info/wp-content/themes/s1/print.php?p=122744
Strategic partnership agreement to be signed with the EU next month
Translated by IRAQdirectory.com – [11/28/2009]
Iraq and European Union Signe next month strategic partnership agreement involving more than 12 industries, as a step that will contribute significantly to development of relations and cooperation between the two sides.
Sources close to the government said , indicating that the draft Convention will be signed by, the Iraqi Foreign Minister, Hoshyar Zebari, or his agent, Dr. Mohammed al-Haj Hammoud, and on the European side represented by Deputy Director General for Foreign Affairs of the European Commission Hicz Mancarelli.
The sources confirmed the completion of the draft Convention between the two sides, indicating that (draft Convention) currently under discussion by the Council of Ministers and European experts and consultants, to study it thoroughly before signing it initialed by both parties.
The bilateral negotiations between Iraq and the European Union was concluded in Brussels last week, after nine rounds of talks lasted more than two and a half years. According to sources, the draft Convention covers areas of “economic and trade, scientific and cultural rights, in addition to the energy represented by the oil and electricity, as well as sectors of human rights and combating terrorism and organized crime, money laundering, illegal immigration and the effects of theft and trafficking.”
Observers believe that the partnership agreement is a new road map for building relationships with the European Union to correct and repair the path of cooperation between the two sides, after being hit by these relations to the fluctuations during the dictatorial regime due to his reckless, noting at the same time that the agreement would send messages of comfort and confirmation that Iraq is ready to cooperate with everyone and not at the expense party without the other, in reference to the United States and Britain.
The sources pointed out that this agreement will also contribute, according to the Provisions of the terms and commitments in Europe in the development of ways of joint cooperation in the areas of trade and investment so as to ensure the integration of Iraq into the global economy provides opportunities for his recovery and progress, to advance its economy and the gradual transition to market economy.
Head of the Committee on Economics, investment and reconstruction in the House of Representatives, Dr. Haider Abadi value the agreement with the European Union, saying in a statement to “Al Sabah” that the Union currently represents one of the main capital of the world economy, which Iraq could move towards economic and wider investment out of the local domain to world.
Abbas al-Bayati, a member of the Security and Defense Committee in parliament, supported the signing of such agreements. Adding to “Al Sabah”: that partnership agreement with the European Union will help the country to pursue and arrest the wanted by Iraqi judiciary for their involvement in terrorist operations and corruption cases directly or indirectly, asserting the existence of a significant number of those who recruit suicide bombers to be sent to Iraq through the regional countries to kill innocent people, in some countries in Europe.
The Iraqi President Jalal Talabani has expressed for the new president of the European Union, Herman Van Rompuy in a letter sent to him recently, about the ambition that partnership agreement is signed between Iraq and the European Union as soon as possible.
http://www.iraqdirectory.com/DisplayNews.aspx?id=11000
Well, I see that the Iraqs’ put out 200 billion in new oil contracts, but haven’t seen any comments since Darren opened his new site. . .what’s up people. . .is everyone just sitting around holding their breath or what. . .Merry Christmas and a Happy new Year to all of you. . .without being politically incorrect. . .God Bless you all this Holiday season. . .Reggie
Does anyone think that this reval will be another 2 or 3 years in the making. I am a long term holder of the Dinar and I am skeptical this will occurr anytime soon. Your thoughts:
Friday, January 29, 2010
War News for Friday, January 29, 2010
Contrary to how President George W. Bush has tried to justify the Iraq war in the past, he has now . . . admitted that the invasion and occupation of Iraq was aimed primarily at seizing predominant influence over its oil by establishing permanent . . . military bases. He made this transparently clear by adding a signing statement to the defense appropriation bill, indicating that he would not be bound by the law’s prohibition against expending funds: “(1) To establish any military installation or base for the purpose of providing for the permanent stationing of United States Armed Forces in Iraq,” or “(2) To exercise United States control of the oil resources of Iraq.” — Ray McGovern
http://warnewstoday.blogspot.com/2010/01/war-news-for-friday-january-29-2010.html
THIS IS JUST MY OPINION ,but THAT BANK IN IRAQI WILL Let You Invest Our Dinars And Give us 6% The 6% is not worth nothing much yet until the re evaluation? AM I RIGHT cause our money now is no comparison to 6 % of Iraqi Money The way I see It Now?
UN pays out $674.2 million from Iraqi oil fun
GENEVA
The U.N. panel overseeing compensation for victims of Iraq’s 1990 Kuwait invasion said Thursday it has paid $674.2 million from Iraqi oil funds to cover losses from the war.
The U.N. Compensation Commission said the money would go to five private corporations and five government or international bodies. It did not disclose the identities of the claimants.
The commission, made up of the 15 U.N. Security Council member countries, has so far paid out nearly $29 billion. Another $23.5 billion is earmarked to go to nine more unidentified claimants.
Money to pay the claims comes from Iraqi oil sales.
Until the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq that toppled Saddam Hussein in 2003, the commission received 25 percent of the proceeds from the U.N. oil-for-food program, which allowed the former Iraqi regime to sell oil and buy food, medicine and other humanitarian goods despite international sanctions.
Since the invasion, the amount the commission receives from Iraqi oil exports has been reduced to 5 percent.
In 2008, the commission asked member nations to help it recover more than $80 million in overpayments made to several thousand claimants.
http://www.businessweek.com/ap/financialnews/D9DGLRH00.htm
FM calls on UNSC’s 5 permanents to exclude Iraq from Ch.7
January 28, 2010 – 05:29:33
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari on Thursday called for bringing Iraq out of Chapter VII of the United Nations Charter.
This came in a meeting between Zebari and the ambassadors of the five permanent members in the UNSC: the United States, Britain, France, Russia, and China.
“The meeting discussed means and steps taken by Iraq’s government in this regard,” the Iraqi Foreign Ministry said in a release received by Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
It said that Zebari handed messages to the ambassadors explaining progress made by Iraq in this concern.
MH (P)/AmR
http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=126066
Oil ministry signs contract over Qarna oilfield
January 30, 2010 – 12:48:43
BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The Iraqi oil ministry will wrap up on Sunday a series of oil contracts announced earlier by signing a final contract over West al-Qarna-2 oilfield as part of the two rounds of tenders with Russia’s Lukoil and Norway’s Statoil, a ministry spokesman said on Saturday.
“The two companies pledged to up production to a peak of 1.800 million barrels per day at a rate of 1.15 dollars per barrel of additional produced barrel. The contract would offer a chance for Russian companies to have presence in Iraq after 2003 in one of the most important southern oilfields,” Assem Jihad told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.
Qarna-2 has a huge reserve estimated to reach 13 billion barrels. The field lies in southern Iraq, west of the Majnoon oilfield, whose reserves are equal to Qarna-2.
The ministry had signed last week a final contract to develop the first stage of West Qarna oilfield with a conglomeration of Exxon Mobil and Shell companies, hopefully to up production by more than two million barrels and offer 100,000 jobs, as stated by Iraqi Minister of Oil Hussein al-Shahrestani.
AmR (P)
http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=126141
US urges peaceful resolutions in Kurdistan
Wednesday, January 27, 2010 10:23 GMT
During a meeting with Kurdistan leader Massoud Barazani in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Kurdish authorities to work toward a peaceful resolution of some of the disputed boundaries, particularly around Kirkuk and settle disputes over oil revenues.
While stressing U.S. support for Kurdish security, she said, “We do expect that the Kurdish leadership will take an important role in trying to stabilize Iraq, trying to work with the Sunni and Shia leadership for the betterment of the entire country”.
http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News/1-43848-.html
Kurds propose to Baghdad solution to oil contracts
February 1, 2010 – 11:16:45
ARBIL
/ Aswat al-Iraq: The Kurdistan regional cabinet has submitted an
official proposal to the Iraqi government in Baghdad to solve the issue
of oil contracts. “The suggestion included different approaches for a solution,”
Barham Saleh, the Kurdistan regional prime minister, told the press on
Monday. He said that Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is currently examining
the proposed solutions.
MH (P) / SS
http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=126235
If people don´t want illegals, a good idea would be to stop hiring them. Illegal immigrants don’t cross the border because they love US, they cross because they get better paid jobs than in their countries. We don´t like illegals but we hire them. We don´t like the war against the drugs but we are the number one consuming drug country of the world…i need a nap.
Al-Maliki regains provisional lead in Iraqi elections
The Earth Times Online Newspaper (Free subscription) | 15 hours ago
Baghdad – The State of Law coalition of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has regained a narrow lead in Iraq’s general election after 83 per cent of votes have been counted, satellite channel al-Arabiya reported Thursday. The development came amidst ongo…
http://www.wikio.com/world/asia/iraq/nouri_al-maliki
Iraq PM, Ex-Premier in Tight Race for Parliament
18/03/2010
BAGHDAD, (AP) – The man who has led Iraq for the past four years is battling for his political survival just as U.S. troops are getting ready to pack up and go home.
With about 83 percent of the votes counted from parliamentary elections, it’s not at all clear that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will emerge the winner because a secular challenger is showing surprising strength. And a drawn-out battle of negotiations with rival coalitions is inevitable.
“Al-Maliki is fighting for his political life,” said Joost Hiltermann, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “He may well come out of this no longer prime minister. He may lose the elections, that is how close it is.”
The prime minister, known as a hardline Shiite during his first couple of years in power, has more recently transformed himself into a law-and-order nationalist who has occasionally reached out to minority Sunnis. While trying to re-establish a strong central government — most notably by routing a Shiite militia that ruled parts of Baghdad and Iraq’s second-largest city, Basra — al-Maliki has also alienated many key constituencies by governing with a heavy hand.
Al-Maliki campaigned with all the benefits of incumbency: easy air time on national TV, the ability to dole out favors to local officials in exchange for their support, and a record of helping stop some of the country’s violence.
But the political bloc loyal to al-Maliki has only a slim lead over the secular coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a Shiite who himself was prime minister from 2004 to 2005.
Allawi’s anti-Iran rhetoric — and the many Sunnis in his Iraqiya coalition — earned him Sunni support in Baghdad and in Sunni-dominated provinces such as Anbar and Salahuddin.
Al-Maliki has been doing well in the Shiite south as well as in Baghdad, a city of 6 million people accounting for almost a fifth of the 325 parliament seats.
With about 12 million votes cast in the March 7 election, the prime minister’s coalition has about a 40,000-vote lead over Allawi and is ahead in more provinces — an important factor considering that parliament seats are divided by province and not by the overall vote count.
The process of choosing the next prime minister could take months — a situation which could invite violence at a time when the United States has vowed to stick to President Barack Obama’s timetable that calls for the withdrawal of combat forces by late summer and all American troops by the end of next year.
Once election results are final and the parliament is seated, the lawmakers will elect a new president. The president then tasks the bloc with the largest number of seats to form a majority government.
But even if the president gives al-Maliki the nod, it’s not clear he could form a governing coalition and retake the prime minister’s office. Almost four years in office have left a long roster of important people and constituencies angry with him.
Followers of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are still miffed at al-Maliki for ousting Sadrist militiamen from the oil city of Basra.
Another Shiite religious party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, blames al-Maliki for splitting the Shiite vote.
And the Kurds, who like the Sunnis make up about 15-20 percent of Iraq’s population, have their own grievances. Those include disputes over who controls oil drilled in Kurdish lands, and the future of Kirkuk — a northern city claimed by both Arabs and Kurds.
The Kurds are widely considered crucial to putting together any government in Iraq. Allawi and other leaders practically sprinted up to the Kurdish city of Sulamaniyah in the days after the election.
The Kurds appear ready to drive a hard bargain for their support.
“The Kurdish coalition won’t make any alliance with any bloc without a signed agreement in order to guarantee that our demands will be implemented,” said Fadhil Mirany, a senior official with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. “We will form an alliance … on the basis of what we get.”
But a new Kurdish political party called Gorran — Change in English — has been eating into the two main Kurdish parties’ political power base, possibly upsetting the unified front that has always made the Kurds a formidable political force able to throw their weight behind a single candidate.
Looking to shore up his Shiite support, al-Maliki has been making overtures to the Iraqi National Alliance, a wide-ranging Shiite religious alliance with Iranian backing. Al-Maliki was to meet Wednesday night with Ammar al-Hakim, a key leader within the INA, said Khudhair al-Khozaie, a candidate on al-Maliki’s list.
“We are having meetings with most all of the blocs, but absolutely the closest bloc for us is the Iraqi National Alliance,” al-Khozaie said.
But preliminary election estimates indicate that the largest bloc within the INA is led by al-Sadr, the unpredictable cleric who could just as easily break off from INA and throw his weight behind Allawi as he could behind al-Maliki.
“Muqtada al-Sadr is the dark horse in this race. He is not necessarily going with INA, he may make up his own mind and he seems partly more inclined to go with Allawi because he still resents al-Maliki for going after his militiamen,” said Marina Ottoway of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for Peace.
But she said Allawi might find al-Sadr “too dangerous” to include in his coalition.
If al-Maliki will have a hard time forming a government, Allawi may fare even worse.
Allawi drew on massive support from Sunnis, the favored sect during Saddam Hussein’s reign who clearly decided that Allawi was their best hope at regaining influence. But that same Sunni backing can be a hindrance when courting the Kurds — both Kurds and Arabs claim the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and disputed provinces stretching from Syria to Iran.
If not Allawi or al-Maliki, could a surprise candidate be tapped to form a government? The prime minister was himself a compromise choice in 2006 to run the country.
Names being mentioned include Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a former prime minister who ran in the INA’s coalition, and Ahmad Chalabi, the one-time Pentagon favorite who also ran in the INA coalition.
But Ottoway, the analyst, said in the long run it may come back to the two men battling it out right now.
“I just don’t think there is going to be another prime minister than either al-Maliki or Allawi,” she said.
http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=20274
Allawi edges ahead of al-Maliki in Iraq vote count
Baghdad, Iraq (News Terupdate) – Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s bloc has edged ahead of the coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq’s parliamentary vote, but al-Maliki remained ahead in the largest provinces, election officials announced Tuesday.
Allawi’s al-Iraqia list was ahead of al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition by about 9,000 votes of the more than 4.2 million cast for the two leading slates. But al-Maliki’s bloc continues to hold a lead in the expected number of seats in Iraq’s parliament since the prime minister is ahead in some of the largest provinces.
State of Law still holds leads in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces, including the two largest: Baghdad, where 68 out of the new parliament’s 325 seats are up for grabs, and Nineveh, with 31 seats at stake. Allawi’s coalition led in five, in the predominantly Sunni Arab north and west.
The latest figures from the Independent High Electoral Commission are based on about 80 percent of the votes cast within Iraq in the March 7 election. Still to be counted are the remainder of those ballots, plus votes from the country’s army and police force, prisoners, hospital patients and 270,000-plus votes from Iraqis living abroad.
The mostly Shiite Iraqi National Alliance was ahead in three provinces, according to the electoral commission. The coalition is backed by the country’s predominantly Shiite neighbor, Iran, and includes controversial secular politician Ahmed Chalabi, as well as some of Iraq’s top Shiite religious parties — including followers of radical anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
An alliance of Iraq’s major Kurdish parties led in the three majority-Kurdish provinces in northeastern Iraq.
The latest figures from the Independent High Electoral Commission are based on about 80 percent of the votes cast within Iraq in the March 7 election. About 6,200 candidates from more than 80 political entities were on the ballot for seats in the Council of Representatives, Iraq’s parliament, which will choose a new government once seated.
Millions of Iraqis defied the threat of violence to cast ballots, with nearly two out of three eligible voters turning out. At least 38 people were killed in attacks on voting day.
Diposkan oleh News Today
http://news-terupdate.blogspot.com/2010/03/allawi-edges-ahead-of-al-maliki-in-iraq.html
Iraq heading for ‘disastrous’ dead heat in elections
Iraq’s elections are heading for a dead heat in what is being seen as a triumph for democracy but a potential disaster for the country’s bomb-shattered security.
By Richard Spencer, Middle East correspondent
Published: 5:51PM GMT 17 Mar 2010
Iraq election close as vote count continues
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his main rival Ayad Allawi Photo: GETTY IMAGES
With the final tally due to be declared on Thursday, the two leading coalitions were heading for 87 seats each and constitutional stalemate.
Just a few thousand votes separated the Iraqiya National Movement of the main challenger, Ayad Allawi, and the State of Law grouping put together by the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki.
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Such a result would have been unimaginable in the era of the late leader Saddam Hussein, who was used to winning 99 per cent of the vote or more in his “elections”.
But it also threatened to provoke a new wave of violence across the country as national politics was paralysed by drawn-out attempts to form a government.
Joost Hiltermann, who monitored the election for the International Crisis Group, said: “It is an irony, but this is what you get if you organise elections in an unstable situation.
“It could get really nasty. I’m utterly unconvinced that the Iraqi institutions are strong enough to withstand that kind of conflict.”
With 163 seats out of the 325 in parliament needed for a majority, it could take months to win over smaller parties, causing tension which could trigger a return to all-out violence.
Analysts and diplomats fear sectarian groups will seek to assert their interests in a leadership vacuum.
The count has been slowed by an elaborate process designed to eliminate fraud in which each vote is counted by two separate election officers, whose tallies have to agree before they are entered into a computer.
Mr Maliki was ahead in the early stages, as counting proceeded swiftly in provinces in the southern Shia heartland in which he competes for dominance with the Islamists of the Iraqi National Alliance.
At that stage, Mr Allawi’s team cried foul, claiming that State of Law officials had interfered with polling stations and that Iraqiya ballots had gone missing. His complaints were dismissed by Mr Maliki, who said the level of fraud was “very small”.
But as counting speeded up in the north, where Sunni voters flocked en masse to Iraqiya, Mr Allawi quickly caught up. Mr Allawi, who is Shia but campaigned on an anti-sectarian, pro-secular government ticket, did better in Shia areas than Mr Maliki did in Sunni ones.
By yesterday, with 80 per cent of the votes counted, he had 2,102,981 votes compared with 2,093,997 for Mr Maliki – a lead of under 9,000.
Now Mr Maliki’s party is accusing the electoral commission of being skewed in Mr Allawi’s favour, despite their earlier dismissal of fraud allegations.
Mr Allawi’s daughter, Sara, told The Daily Telegraph that a coalition with Mr Maliki might be possible, despite the bitter mutual accusations between the two which marked the campaign.
“We welcome negotiations with any party that is willing to pursue a secularist programme,” she said. “Since no one will form a majority, the next government will be based on a coalition of parties rather than who gets the most votes,” she said.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/7466467/Iraq-heading-for-disastrous-dead-heat-in-elections.html
Iraq: Election Results Announcement Postponed
March 26, 2010
S T R A T F O R
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE
Due to an emergency meeting of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) of Iraq, the announcement of election results was postponed, Al Sharqiya reported March 26. Journalists are at Hotel Al-Rasheed awaiting IHEC members’ arrival.
Iraq: Allawi To Form Coalition Government
March 27, 2010
Iyad Allawi said his Iraqiya bloc, which narrowly won Iraq’s parliamentary election, will work with all parties to form a coalition government, BBC reported March 27. Allawi said he would start by talking with Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s rival State of Law alliance, whose leader has refused to accept the result of the election. According to final results published by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, the secular Iraqiya bloc won 91 of the Council of Representative’s 325 seats, 72 short of a majority.
Iraq: Al-Maliki’s Coalition To Challenge Election Results
March 28, 2010
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition said March 28 it would formally challenge the results released by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission and will provide several documents and evidence to the commission in the coming days, AK News reported. A representative of the coalition also said it has negotiated with the Iraqi National Union list and the Iraqi Accordance list on forming an alliance, and is continuing talks with the Kurdistan Alliance.
Iraq: Commission To Contest Vote Results
March 29, 2010
Iraq’s Accountability and Justice Commission, which was created to purge the country’s political system of Baathist elements, announced it would contest the results of recent parliamentary elections because six of the winning candidates had been banned from running the day before the vote, The Washington Post reported March 29. The commission said it would appeal to the nation’s highest court to throw out both the votes and the candidates, at least half of whom were from former prime minister Ayad Allawi’s al-Iraqiya List. Al-Iraqiya member and former interior minister Falah Naqib warned of “civil war” in the country if the candidates were purged.
Iraq: Sadrists Open To Alliance With SoL
March 30, 2010
The Sadrist movement is open to forming a government with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc, provided that al-Maliki is not the prime minister, Al Rafidaeen reported March 30, citing sources close to the Tehran talks. The Sadrist movement has suggested Qusay as-Shuhail, a Sadrist lawmaker, as the potential new head of the government. Another potential candidate is Baqir Jabr al-Zubaidi, former Iraqi finance minister, who has extensive ties with Syria and Saudi Arabia.The sources said that if Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s term is renewed, Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi will likely retain his position.
Iraq: President Meets With U.S. Ambassador
March 30, 2010
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani met with U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill at the presidential residence in Baghdad March 30, PUKMedia reported. The officials discussed bilateral relations and Talabani stressed the need for continued U.S. support for Iraq’s political process. Hill said the United States is concerned with building a strong and democratic Iraq, and emphasized support for the political process.
Iraq: SoL, INA Reach Tentative Pact
March 30, 2010
Iraqi political coalitions Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law have reached a provisional agreement to nominate a candidate for premiership, al-Adalah, a newspaper published by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, reported March 30.
Iraq: Al-Sadr Calls For Referendum On New PM
March 30, 2010
An aide to Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said al-Sadr is calling for a referendum to determine the next Iraqi prime minister, AP reported March 30. The unnamed aide had recently returned from Iran, where al-Sadr currently resides and held talks about forming a new government.
Iraq: Allawi Accuses Iran Of Interference
March 30, 2010
Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya List won Iraq’s parliamentary elections, has accused Iran of interfering in Iraqi politics and trying to keep him from becoming prime minister, BBC reported March 30. Allawi said the Iranian government invited all major parties except his Iraqiya List to Tehran for talks. He also accused Iran of influencing a commission that has been checking candidates for connections to Saddam Hussein’s Baath party.
Iraq: PM Referendum Ruled Out
March 31, 2010
A spokesperson for the al-Iraqiya List ruled out holding a referendum to select the new prime minister, asserting that the Sadrist bloc has the right to hold an unofficial referendum, Aswat al-Iraq reported March 31. Missoun al-Damlouji said holding a referendum is “impossible and irrational” because it would need procedures and financing.
Iraq: Kurdish President Meets U.S. and Iraqi General
March 31, 2010
The president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, met with the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. Raymond Odierno, and the chief of the Iraqi Army General Staff, Gen. Babakir Zebari, PUKmedia reported March 31. The leaders discussed strengthening relations between the KRG and the United States, the political situation in Iraq, recent elections, and the need to resolve the suspended issues between the Iraqi federal government and the KRG
Iraq: Iraqiya List To Visit Iran, Neighboring Countries
March 31, 2010
The Iraqiya List, the winning parliamentary election coalition, said March 31 that it will send delegates to visit Iraq’s neighboring countries to discuss the political situation and explain the list’s plans for forming the new government, DPA reported. An Iraqiya List member said delegates will be sent to Iran primarily to meet with Muqtada al-Sadr, an Iraqi Shiite leader.
Iraq: Al-Maliki Not Mentioned In Talks – Party Leader
March 31, 2010
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was not mentioned by his State of Law coalition during alliance negotiations with the National Coalition, and the possibility of al-Maliki taking control of the next government has not been broached, said a State of Law leader, reported AKnews on March 31.
Iraq: Al-Maliki Confirms Election Appeal
March 31, 2010
Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki confirmed March 31 that his State of Law coalition had formally appealed the March 7 parliamentary election results, Reuters reported. Al-Maliki said there was confusion in the results that should be clarified by a three-judge electoral panel. “Everyone should be bound by the decision,” he added.
Iraq: INA To Hold Referendum
March 31, 2010
Muqtada al-Sadr confirmed March 31 that his Iraqi National Alliance (INA) coalition will hold a referendum April 2-3 with Iraqi citizens, Reuters reported. An INA spokesman said voting will occur “at Sadrist offices, at mosques or with mobile party teams,” and is intended to help INA decide who to support for prime minister. The ballot will include current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Mohammed Jaffar al-Sadr from State of Law, Adel Abdul-Mahdi and former-Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari from INA, and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of al-Iraqiya. There will also be a blank space for voters to write in candidates.
Iraq: Agreement Reached Between INA, SoL
April 1, 2010
State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance agreed that the Iraqi prime minister will be from within the two lists based on compromise between the parties, according to SoL leader Ali al-Adeeb, Bab News reported April 1. Adeeb told the Iraqi National News Agency that the coalitions agreed on basic principles that form the biggest bloc in the next parliament. Adeeb said the two coalitions and the Kurdistan Alliance are expected to form a parliamentary majority capable of forming the next government, based on partnership.
Iraq: No Al-Iraqiya Delegation To Tehran – Official
April 1, 2010
Adnan Dunbus, a member of the al-Iraqiya list, denied reports that emerged March 31 that the group had sent a delegation to Tehran to seek assistance in forming a coalition government, Al-Ikhbarya news agency reported April 1. Dunbus said his list does not deal with Tehran and has not reached an agreement with the other coalitions.
Brief: Iraq Parties Close To Deal?
April 1, 2010
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news
A leading member of Iraq’s State of Law (SoL) coalition, Ali al-Adeeb, said SoL and the Iranian-backed Iraqi National Alliance (INA) have agreed on the principles of a ruling coalition between the two parties, with the possible participation of Kurdistan Alliance, Bab News reported April 1. Adeeb said the government should include members of the coalition partners according to the results they got from March 7 parliamentary elections and not according to specific quotas, showing SoL is trying to ensure it retains the dominant position in such an alliance, since it came out with 29 more seats in parliament than INA. STRATFOR has received indications that Iran is also pushing for Ibrahim al-Jaafari, president of National Reform Trend within INA, to become prime minister. Though current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is expected to resist any agreement that would leave him out, SoL would likely abandon al-Maliki to form a government with INA and appears to be demanding more clout as its price for cooperation. Of importance now is the reaction of the Sunnis in former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s al-Iraqiya list, who fear being politically sidelined again and could turn back to insurgency as a form of political pressure.
Iraq: President, PM Discuss New Government
April 2, 2010
Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki discussed last April 2 the creation of a national partnership government between the two winning coalitions of the March 7 parliamentary election, Aswat al-Iraq reported, citing the president’s office. The two met at Talabani’s Baghdad residence, and discussed the importance of unification.
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