March 26, 2010
S T R A T F O R
GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE

Due to an emergency meeting of the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) of Iraq, the announcement of election results was postponed, Al Sharqiya reported March 26. Journalists are at Hotel Al-Rasheed awaiting IHEC members’ arrival.

Iraq: Allawi To Form Coalition Government

March 27, 2010

Iyad Allawi said his Iraqiya bloc, which narrowly won Iraq’s parliamentary election, will work with all parties to form a coalition government, BBC reported March 27. Allawi said he would start by talking with Prime Minister Nouri al Maliki’s rival State of Law alliance, whose leader has refused to accept the result of the election. According to final results published by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission, the secular Iraqiya bloc won 91 of the Council of Representative’s 325 seats, 72 short of a majority.

Iraq: Al-Maliki’s Coalition To Challenge Election Results

March 28, 2010

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition said March 28 it would formally challenge the results released by Iraq’s Independent High Electoral Commission and will provide several documents and evidence to the commission in the coming days, AK News reported. A representative of the coalition also said it has negotiated with the Iraqi National Union list and the Iraqi Accordance list on forming an alliance, and is continuing talks with the Kurdistan Alliance.

Iraq: Commission To Contest Vote Results

March 29, 2010

Iraq’s Accountability and Justice Commission, which was created to purge the country’s political system of Baathist elements, announced it would contest the results of recent parliamentary elections because six of the winning candidates had been banned from running the day before the vote, The Washington Post reported March 29. The commission said it would appeal to the nation’s highest court to throw out both the votes and the candidates, at least half of whom were from former prime minister Ayad Allawi’s al-Iraqiya List. Al-Iraqiya member and former interior minister Falah Naqib warned of “civil war” in the country if the candidates were purged.

Iraq: Sadrists Open To Alliance With SoL

March 30, 2010

The Sadrist movement is open to forming a government with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki’s State of Law bloc, provided that al-Maliki is not the prime minister, Al Rafidaeen reported March 30, citing sources close to the Tehran talks. The Sadrist movement has suggested Qusay as-Shuhail, a Sadrist lawmaker, as the potential new head of the government. Another potential candidate is Baqir Jabr al-Zubaidi, former Iraqi finance minister, who has extensive ties with Syria and Saudi Arabia.The sources said that if Iraqi President Jalal Talabani’s term is renewed, Vice President Adel Abdel Mahdi will likely retain his position.

Iraq: President Meets With U.S. Ambassador

March 30, 2010

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani met with U.S. Ambassador Christopher Hill at the presidential residence in Baghdad March 30, PUKMedia reported. The officials discussed bilateral relations and Talabani stressed the need for continued U.S. support for Iraq’s political process. Hill said the United States is concerned with building a strong and democratic Iraq, and emphasized support for the political process.

Iraq: SoL, INA Reach Tentative Pact

March 30, 2010

Iraqi political coalitions Iraqi National Alliance and State of Law have reached a provisional agreement to nominate a candidate for premiership, al-Adalah, a newspaper published by the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, reported March 30.

Iraq: Al-Sadr Calls For Referendum On New PM

March 30, 2010

An aide to Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr said al-Sadr is calling for a referendum to determine the next Iraqi prime minister, AP reported March 30. The unnamed aide had recently returned from Iran, where al-Sadr currently resides and held talks about forming a new government.

Iraq: Allawi Accuses Iran Of Interference

March 30, 2010

Iyad Allawi, whose Iraqiya List won Iraq’s parliamentary elections, has accused Iran of interfering in Iraqi politics and trying to keep him from becoming prime minister, BBC reported March 30. Allawi said the Iranian government invited all major parties except his Iraqiya List to Tehran for talks. He also accused Iran of influencing a commission that has been checking candidates for connections to Saddam Hussein’s Baath party.

Iraq: PM Referendum Ruled Out

March 31, 2010

A spokesperson for the al-Iraqiya List ruled out holding a referendum to select the new prime minister, asserting that the Sadrist bloc has the right to hold an unofficial referendum, Aswat al-Iraq reported March 31. Missoun al-Damlouji said holding a referendum is “impossible and irrational” because it would need procedures and financing.

Iraq: Kurdish President Meets U.S. and Iraqi General

March 31, 2010

The president of the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), Massoud Barzani, met with the commander of U.S. forces in Iraq, Gen. Raymond Odierno, and the chief of the Iraqi Army General Staff, Gen. Babakir Zebari, PUKmedia reported March 31. The leaders discussed strengthening relations between the KRG and the United States, the political situation in Iraq, recent elections, and the need to resolve the suspended issues between the Iraqi federal government and the KRG

Iraq: Iraqiya List To Visit Iran, Neighboring Countries

March 31, 2010

The Iraqiya List, the winning parliamentary election coalition, said March 31 that it will send delegates to visit Iraq’s neighboring countries to discuss the political situation and explain the list’s plans for forming the new government, DPA reported. An Iraqiya List member said delegates will be sent to Iran primarily to meet with Muqtada al-Sadr, an Iraqi Shiite leader.

Iraq: Al-Maliki Not Mentioned In Talks – Party Leader

March 31, 2010

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki was not mentioned by his State of Law coalition during alliance negotiations with the National Coalition, and the possibility of al-Maliki taking control of the next government has not been broached, said a State of Law leader, reported AKnews on March 31.

Iraq: Al-Maliki Confirms Election Appeal

March 31, 2010

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki confirmed March 31 that his State of Law coalition had formally appealed the March 7 parliamentary election results, Reuters reported. Al-Maliki said there was confusion in the results that should be clarified by a three-judge electoral panel. “Everyone should be bound by the decision,” he added.

Iraq: INA To Hold Referendum

March 31, 2010

Muqtada al-Sadr confirmed March 31 that his Iraqi National Alliance (INA) coalition will hold a referendum April 2-3 with Iraqi citizens, Reuters reported. An INA spokesman said voting will occur “at Sadrist offices, at mosques or with mobile party teams,” and is intended to help INA decide who to support for prime minister. The ballot will include current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki and Mohammed Jaffar al-Sadr from State of Law, Adel Abdul-Mahdi and former-Prime Minister Ibrahim Jaafari from INA, and former Prime Minister Iyad Allawi of al-Iraqiya. There will also be a blank space for voters to write in candidates.

Iraq: Agreement Reached Between INA, SoL

April 1, 2010

State of Law and the Iraqi National Alliance agreed that the Iraqi prime minister will be from within the two lists based on compromise between the parties, according to SoL leader Ali al-Adeeb, Bab News reported April 1. Adeeb told the Iraqi National News Agency that the coalitions agreed on basic principles that form the biggest bloc in the next parliament. Adeeb said the two coalitions and the Kurdistan Alliance are expected to form a parliamentary majority capable of forming the next government, based on partnership.

Iraq: No Al-Iraqiya Delegation To Tehran – Official

April 1, 2010

Adnan Dunbus, a member of the al-Iraqiya list, denied reports that emerged March 31 that the group had sent a delegation to Tehran to seek assistance in forming a coalition government, Al-Ikhbarya news agency reported April 1. Dunbus said his list does not deal with Tehran and has not reached an agreement with the other coalitions.

Brief: Iraq Parties Close To Deal?

April 1, 2010
Applying STRATFOR analysis to breaking news

A leading member of Iraq’s State of Law (SoL) coalition, Ali al-Adeeb, said SoL and the Iranian-backed Iraqi National Alliance (INA) have agreed on the principles of a ruling coalition between the two parties, with the possible participation of Kurdistan Alliance, Bab News reported April 1. Adeeb said the government should include members of the coalition partners according to the results they got from March 7 parliamentary elections and not according to specific quotas, showing SoL is trying to ensure it retains the dominant position in such an alliance, since it came out with 29 more seats in parliament than INA. STRATFOR has received indications that Iran is also pushing for Ibrahim al-Jaafari, president of National Reform Trend within INA, to become prime minister. Though current Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki is expected to resist any agreement that would leave him out, SoL would likely abandon al-Maliki to form a government with INA and appears to be demanding more clout as its price for cooperation. Of importance now is the reaction of the Sunnis in former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s al-Iraqiya list, who fear being politically sidelined again and could turn back to insurgency as a form of political pressure.

Iraq: President, PM Discuss New Government

April 2, 2010

Iraqi President Jalal Talabani and Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki discussed last April 2 the creation of a national partnership government between the two winning coalitions of the March 7 parliamentary election, Aswat al-Iraq reported, citing the president’s office. The two met at Talabani’s Baghdad residence, and discussed the importance of unification.

By Richard Spencer, Middle East correspondent
Published: 5:51PM GMT 17 Mar 2010
Iraq election close as vote count continues
Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and his main rival Ayad Allawi Photo: GETTY IMAGES

With the final tally due to be declared on Thursday, the two leading coalitions were heading for 87 seats each and constitutional stalemate.

Just a few thousand votes separated the Iraqiya National Movement of the main challenger, Ayad Allawi, and the State of Law grouping put together by the prime minister, Nouri al-Maliki.

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Such a result would have been unimaginable in the era of the late leader Saddam Hussein, who was used to winning 99 per cent of the vote or more in his “elections”.

But it also threatened to provoke a new wave of violence across the country as national politics was paralysed by drawn-out attempts to form a government.

Joost Hiltermann, who monitored the election for the International Crisis Group, said: “It is an irony, but this is what you get if you organise elections in an unstable situation.

“It could get really nasty. I’m utterly unconvinced that the Iraqi institutions are strong enough to withstand that kind of conflict.”

With 163 seats out of the 325 in parliament needed for a majority, it could take months to win over smaller parties, causing tension which could trigger a return to all-out violence.

Analysts and diplomats fear sectarian groups will seek to assert their interests in a leadership vacuum.

The count has been slowed by an elaborate process designed to eliminate fraud in which each vote is counted by two separate election officers, whose tallies have to agree before they are entered into a computer.

Mr Maliki was ahead in the early stages, as counting proceeded swiftly in provinces in the southern Shia heartland in which he competes for dominance with the Islamists of the Iraqi National Alliance.

At that stage, Mr Allawi’s team cried foul, claiming that State of Law officials had interfered with polling stations and that Iraqiya ballots had gone missing. His complaints were dismissed by Mr Maliki, who said the level of fraud was “very small”.

But as counting speeded up in the north, where Sunni voters flocked en masse to Iraqiya, Mr Allawi quickly caught up. Mr Allawi, who is Shia but campaigned on an anti-sectarian, pro-secular government ticket, did better in Shia areas than Mr Maliki did in Sunni ones.

By yesterday, with 80 per cent of the votes counted, he had 2,102,981 votes compared with 2,093,997 for Mr Maliki – a lead of under 9,000.

Now Mr Maliki’s party is accusing the electoral commission of being skewed in Mr Allawi’s favour, despite their earlier dismissal of fraud allegations.

Mr Allawi’s daughter, Sara, told The Daily Telegraph that a coalition with Mr Maliki might be possible, despite the bitter mutual accusations between the two which marked the campaign.

“We welcome negotiations with any party that is willing to pursue a secularist programme,” she said. “Since no one will form a majority, the next government will be based on a coalition of parties rather than who gets the most votes,” she said.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/7466467/Iraq-heading-for-disastrous-dead-heat-in-elections.html

Baghdad, Iraq (News Terupdate) – Former Iraqi Prime Minister Ayad Allawi’s bloc has edged ahead of the coalition led by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki in Iraq’s parliamentary vote, but al-Maliki remained ahead in the largest provinces, election officials announced Tuesday.

Allawi’s al-Iraqia list was ahead of al-Maliki’s State of Law coalition by about 9,000 votes of the more than 4.2 million cast for the two leading slates. But al-Maliki’s bloc continues to hold a lead in the expected number of seats in Iraq’s parliament since the prime minister is ahead in some of the largest provinces.

State of Law still holds leads in seven of Iraq’s 18 provinces, including the two largest: Baghdad, where 68 out of the new parliament’s 325 seats are up for grabs, and Nineveh, with 31 seats at stake. Allawi’s coalition led in five, in the predominantly Sunni Arab north and west.

The latest figures from the Independent High Electoral Commission are based on about 80 percent of the votes cast within Iraq in the March 7 election. Still to be counted are the remainder of those ballots, plus votes from the country’s army and police force, prisoners, hospital patients and 270,000-plus votes from Iraqis living abroad.

The mostly Shiite Iraqi National Alliance was ahead in three provinces, according to the electoral commission. The coalition is backed by the country’s predominantly Shiite neighbor, Iran, and includes controversial secular politician Ahmed Chalabi, as well as some of Iraq’s top Shiite religious parties — including followers of radical anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.

An alliance of Iraq’s major Kurdish parties led in the three majority-Kurdish provinces in northeastern Iraq.

The latest figures from the Independent High Electoral Commission are based on about 80 percent of the votes cast within Iraq in the March 7 election. About 6,200 candidates from more than 80 political entities were on the ballot for seats in the Council of Representatives, Iraq’s parliament, which will choose a new government once seated.

Millions of Iraqis defied the threat of violence to cast ballots, with nearly two out of three eligible voters turning out. At least 38 people were killed in attacks on voting day.
Diposkan oleh News Today

http://news-terupdate.blogspot.com/2010/03/allawi-edges-ahead-of-al-maliki-in-iraq.html

18/03/2010

BAGHDAD, (AP) – The man who has led Iraq for the past four years is battling for his political survival just as U.S. troops are getting ready to pack up and go home.

With about 83 percent of the votes counted from parliamentary elections, it’s not at all clear that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki will emerge the winner because a secular challenger is showing surprising strength. And a drawn-out battle of negotiations with rival coalitions is inevitable.

“Al-Maliki is fighting for his political life,” said Joost Hiltermann, an analyst at the International Crisis Group. “He may well come out of this no longer prime minister. He may lose the elections, that is how close it is.”

The prime minister, known as a hardline Shiite during his first couple of years in power, has more recently transformed himself into a law-and-order nationalist who has occasionally reached out to minority Sunnis. While trying to re-establish a strong central government — most notably by routing a Shiite militia that ruled parts of Baghdad and Iraq’s second-largest city, Basra — al-Maliki has also alienated many key constituencies by governing with a heavy hand.

Al-Maliki campaigned with all the benefits of incumbency: easy air time on national TV, the ability to dole out favors to local officials in exchange for their support, and a record of helping stop some of the country’s violence.

But the political bloc loyal to al-Maliki has only a slim lead over the secular coalition led by Ayad Allawi, a Shiite who himself was prime minister from 2004 to 2005.

Allawi’s anti-Iran rhetoric — and the many Sunnis in his Iraqiya coalition — earned him Sunni support in Baghdad and in Sunni-dominated provinces such as Anbar and Salahuddin.

Al-Maliki has been doing well in the Shiite south as well as in Baghdad, a city of 6 million people accounting for almost a fifth of the 325 parliament seats.

With about 12 million votes cast in the March 7 election, the prime minister’s coalition has about a 40,000-vote lead over Allawi and is ahead in more provinces — an important factor considering that parliament seats are divided by province and not by the overall vote count.

The process of choosing the next prime minister could take months — a situation which could invite violence at a time when the United States has vowed to stick to President Barack Obama’s timetable that calls for the withdrawal of combat forces by late summer and all American troops by the end of next year.

Once election results are final and the parliament is seated, the lawmakers will elect a new president. The president then tasks the bloc with the largest number of seats to form a majority government.

But even if the president gives al-Maliki the nod, it’s not clear he could form a governing coalition and retake the prime minister’s office. Almost four years in office have left a long roster of important people and constituencies angry with him.

Followers of anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr are still miffed at al-Maliki for ousting Sadrist militiamen from the oil city of Basra.

Another Shiite religious party, the Supreme Islamic Iraqi Council, blames al-Maliki for splitting the Shiite vote.

And the Kurds, who like the Sunnis make up about 15-20 percent of Iraq’s population, have their own grievances. Those include disputes over who controls oil drilled in Kurdish lands, and the future of Kirkuk — a northern city claimed by both Arabs and Kurds.

The Kurds are widely considered crucial to putting together any government in Iraq. Allawi and other leaders practically sprinted up to the Kurdish city of Sulamaniyah in the days after the election.

The Kurds appear ready to drive a hard bargain for their support.

“The Kurdish coalition won’t make any alliance with any bloc without a signed agreement in order to guarantee that our demands will be implemented,” said Fadhil Mirany, a senior official with the Kurdistan Democratic Party. “We will form an alliance … on the basis of what we get.”

But a new Kurdish political party called Gorran — Change in English — has been eating into the two main Kurdish parties’ political power base, possibly upsetting the unified front that has always made the Kurds a formidable political force able to throw their weight behind a single candidate.

Looking to shore up his Shiite support, al-Maliki has been making overtures to the Iraqi National Alliance, a wide-ranging Shiite religious alliance with Iranian backing. Al-Maliki was to meet Wednesday night with Ammar al-Hakim, a key leader within the INA, said Khudhair al-Khozaie, a candidate on al-Maliki’s list.

“We are having meetings with most all of the blocs, but absolutely the closest bloc for us is the Iraqi National Alliance,” al-Khozaie said.

But preliminary election estimates indicate that the largest bloc within the INA is led by al-Sadr, the unpredictable cleric who could just as easily break off from INA and throw his weight behind Allawi as he could behind al-Maliki.

“Muqtada al-Sadr is the dark horse in this race. He is not necessarily going with INA, he may make up his own mind and he seems partly more inclined to go with Allawi because he still resents al-Maliki for going after his militiamen,” said Marina Ottoway of the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment for Peace.

But she said Allawi might find al-Sadr “too dangerous” to include in his coalition.

If al-Maliki will have a hard time forming a government, Allawi may fare even worse.

Allawi drew on massive support from Sunnis, the favored sect during Saddam Hussein’s reign who clearly decided that Allawi was their best hope at regaining influence. But that same Sunni backing can be a hindrance when courting the Kurds — both Kurds and Arabs claim the oil-rich city of Kirkuk and disputed provinces stretching from Syria to Iran.

If not Allawi or al-Maliki, could a surprise candidate be tapped to form a government? The prime minister was himself a compromise choice in 2006 to run the country.

Names being mentioned include Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a former prime minister who ran in the INA’s coalition, and Ahmad Chalabi, the one-time Pentagon favorite who also ran in the INA coalition.

But Ottoway, the analyst, said in the long run it may come back to the two men battling it out right now.

“I just don’t think there is going to be another prime minister than either al-Maliki or Allawi,” she said.

http://www.aawsat.com/english/news.asp?section=1&id=20274

The Earth Times Online Newspaper (Free subscription) | 15 hours ago

Baghdad – The State of Law coalition of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki has regained a narrow lead in Iraq’s general election after 83 per cent of votes have been counted, satellite channel al-Arabiya reported Thursday. The development came amidst ongo…

http://www.wikio.com/world/asia/iraq/nouri_al-maliki

During a meeting with Kurdistan leader Massoud Barazani in Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton called on Kurdish authorities to work toward a peaceful resolution of some of the disputed boundaries, particularly around Kirkuk and settle disputes over oil revenues.

While stressing U.S. support for Kurdish security, she said, “We do expect that the Kurdish leadership will take an important role in trying to stabilize Iraq, trying to work with the Sunni and Shia leadership for the betterment of the entire country”.
http://www.alsumaria.tv/en/Iraq-News/1-43848-.html

BAGHDAD / Aswat al-Iraq: The Iraqi oil ministry will wrap up on Sunday a series of oil contracts announced earlier by signing a final contract over West al-Qarna-2 oilfield as part of the two rounds of tenders with Russia’s Lukoil and Norway’s Statoil, a ministry spokesman said on Saturday.

“The two companies pledged to up production to a peak of 1.800 million barrels per day at a rate of 1.15 dollars per barrel of additional produced barrel. The contract would offer a chance for Russian companies to have presence in Iraq after 2003 in one of the most important southern oilfields,” Assem Jihad told Aswat al-Iraq news agency.

Qarna-2 has a huge reserve estimated to reach 13 billion barrels. The field lies in southern Iraq, west of the Majnoon oilfield, whose reserves are equal to Qarna-2.
The ministry had signed last week a final contract to develop the first stage of West Qarna oilfield with a conglomeration of Exxon Mobil and Shell companies, hopefully to up production by more than two million barrels and offer 100,000 jobs, as stated by Iraqi Minister of Oil Hussein al-Shahrestani.
AmR (P)

http://en.aswataliraq.info/?p=126141