“The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success.”, Al-Maliki, Iraq Prime Minister on the topic of the Iraq Dinar revaluation.
“The government would not rush matters but would rather work on finding all the guarantees to render this measure a success.”, Al-Maliki, Iraq Prime Minister on the topic of the Iraq Dinar revaluation.
Sounds to me like he is keeping his word on that much! Taking their “time,” anyway. News will be out in the next few days to give us some light on what they plan to do, I think. It is starting to heat up again, now that most of the >election crap< is done…the bickering will continue and Maliki will not stop until he has Allowi skipping off with his tail between his legs. I hope it doesn't happen…but we will see. I am hoping that we see more movement with the CBI and IMF. I WANT TO SEE MORE " INTERNATIONAL" TALK! I hope to see these sanctions lifted and these other things that have been hovering over like black clouds! I hope, I hope, I hope….and soon!
I couldn’t agree more. Let’s do it right and get Max Results! So let’s not botch it up!
So, did you all see the news that has recently came out? Good, good, good…for us. We are going in the right direction!!!! I saw an article about the Chapter 7…didn’t quite understand it…but the talks are there. Did you all see the article where Allowi said that he would pass the hydrocarbon Law? ( Now, I want him to get in there come he(( or high water! ) And the one I like most….something along the lines of….the dinar moving ahead as planned even though the issues are there with the P.M. business up in the air! I am hoping to see that restriction lifted >soon< with the IMF & the tradable currency…. and with the talks there with their cell phone company only accepting dinar as of April 1st!?* All the news today has my head swimming….but with the current…not so much against it anymore! I look forward to seeing what comes out in the next days! Keep your fingers crossed! Better cross your toes tooooo! Lol!
Jennofer what is your best guess at when this might happen? Any word from your friend Bubbajr?
Trent and Joe> I definately think we are starting back up with the news and we are seeing things that we have been wanting to see…outside of this election. Some of it, I do not understand like the Chapter 7 thing but I do see where the HYDROCARBON LAW was mentioned by Allowi. ( I just wonder if Maliki gets back in there…if he will pass it, as well.) I read an article tonight that, that bozo at the CBI said that the rate on the dinar was steady and no need to change it at the present time….but….depending on the oil production….depends on the growth of the dinar. I also saw an article stating that they were not going to drop the 3 zeros > redenominate< just yet and I am thinking that we will see an RV when that happens ( or we will see an RV and then the lower denomination will follow!) so I think we might have to wait a little longer. I, personally, think that the restrictions with the IMF has to be lifted before we will see a major jump in the dinar anyway so whatever bozo says at the CBI really doesn't amount to much until then. Bubbajr has only been posting a few days so I haven't had a chance to speak with her. I didn't want to bombard her with my many questions…just getting back from California and all. I actually want to see some more articles come out before I do that anyway. It has been weeks over weeks of not much more than the elections so I don't have really that much to question her about. I mean, I do…but I don't. I like to hear her take on everything and how she sees things happening, but she may tell me what I already know…the elections has suffocated all other things, for the most part.
I have learned to have my eyes open on this and try to take in all good and bad. I know that things need to be dealt with like …the restriction with the IMF, and the fact that Iraq is agreeing to all things with the Chapter 7 issue is a good sign that they will be past that real soon, and the fact that the Hydrocarbon Law has been mentioned of holding this up and the fact that it has been "noted" to be brought up and said that it will quickly pass…is a very good sign. I know that Iraq wants to be internationally recognized so I am keeping my eyes open for anything at all that states that they are moving forward with that. I see progress, but I also see this election hanging on like a bad habit. I think I read something along the lines of it being clear in 10 WORKING DAYS and they will have their new Prime Minister. I have a feeling that news will seep over the next two or three weeks and when the new Prime Minister is officially announced….we will not be able to KEEP UP WITH THE NEW DEVELOPMENTS! We just have to be patient with this crazy election thing! Allowi is coming out with promises to the people…like the Hydrocarbon Law… and it is really hard to say what else he has said considering we only get a portion of their news. What they are allowed to print, anyway, so he might be tipping his hand a bit to get the big wigs to sway in his direction on this. Or, he could be making these statements to let the Iraqi people know that he is the right man for the position…who knows? I don't see this going on much longer though. I kinda agree that maybe April is a wash, unless the new government gets in there and gets antsy to pass some things with their new found power. They did get part of the budget and voting on some of those things passed to them, to my understanding. I think the beginning of May…we will be all excited to see this thing move forward. The stuff with the elections should, or I hope, anyway, will be worked out and HOPEFULLY they will be seated to move forward. I don't see how anything could happen until then. I want to believe that it could happen anyday like most people do, but I really don't. Not that it isn't possible….I don't know that at all….but I have seen the issues brought up that could be potentually holding this up so I am willing to take these issues in and see them through before I get my hopes up again. I hope I wake up one morning real soon surprised that I was wrong! JMO!
I have posted twice outside of my post above and neither one of them posted. One, a few days ago…and a long one tonight. I have to get to work in the morning so I will try again tomorrow night. Sorry. Neither one of my posts had any links to them so I have no clue why they are not posting.
Oh, that one goes in!
I have been censored afew times too.I know I was mad and said some stuff,I unstand why they did what they did.I hope they show up Jenn I love to read your posts.I read another story today that said NO LOP. I like those.lol
O.K. Gonna try this again.
The news that has come out lately points to things moving…so I am excited about that. What I don’t quite understand is why does Maliki get a second chance when Allowi clearly won? He won by 2 seats and they are calling a “due over?” Or whatever they are calling it..who knows? But, I read today that they will have results in a few days and it looks as though most are jumping on the Allowi band wagon anyway. I hope so…he said that he wants to pass the Hydrocarbon Law and most have said that the Hydrocarbon Law is one of the things holding this up! Plus, they said that they will quickly seat these people and form their Government…in the next two weeks…I think??? That is such good news…but I do remember all the many times they said ” the budget will be done….” and those days came and went…so I just hope for the best on that one. I saw where they had the signings of two more countries in the Chapter 7 thing! So, do you all think Kuwait will be a problem in that respect? I am hoping not, and maybe that will be over soon since most think that the Chapter 7 is holding us up.The restrictions that the IMF has on Iraq with the exchange rate…. I have my eyes open to see them lift that…but I haven’t seen anything more than them just wanting to do this. Many think that is holding this up. I am going to post..then continue…
Maybe my posts are pages long and it is to long to post! LOL! Anyway, I know from past articles that Iraq wants to be Internationally recognized and it seems as though it is moving in that direction. I don’t buy in to the dates and rates…I look at what may be holding this up and consider it as what needs to be there, or taken away, and not get to excited until it happens. I have been bit to many times on that one. Bubbajr thinks we are close! My hubby talked to her today. She will say dates look good but she doesn’t push the ” for sure” thing. She is excited about how the elections are moving along and the statements on that , that came out today. She is happy, to say the least, on how things are progressing. I just want to keep a clear head on what might be holding this up and go with that and maybe I will wake up surprised one day soon…you never know. We are seeing more and more come out with the elections winding down so things might start unfolding for us…but as for a RV now..this week-end or this next week…nothing is poking at me to believe in it. More news will come soon though and I think that we will see changes. All their past articles point to what we are waiting on ( that has been quoted to be keeping this from happening) and when this election thing is resolved, I think I will start getting excited again.
I just read the posting on DD , and it discussed the no way this is anything but a scam for the money sellers. What does everyone think? This was from Stardogger. Deflated me a bunch
Jim> I just read DD’S site top to bottom and I saw nothing like that. What did I miss? I also read Stardoggers site nightly and I could not imagine him ( stardogger) saying that. Maybe you misunderstood? Or, maybe you read a post from “someone” on stardogger that is making these claims? Trust me, you will find these types of people that slip through the cracks to discourage you in this investment. Stick with the majority of us….the positive thinkers!
I will find it and post it here
Here is what I read:
* Enorrste Post: Stardogger (RacerX Opinion Debate)
April 5, 2010 · Posted in CHATS / POSTS
* RacerX Opinion 3/29/10 (Posted on Currency Trade Chat)
March 29, 2010 · Posted in CHATS / POSTS
Let me begin by saying that I own five million Iraqi Dinar which I bought a few years ago. I say this because I want it to be clear that I would LOVE for the IQD to go through the roof. I am hoping for the best but feel compelled to write this because of some of the news I’ve been hearing lately about people putting retirement savings, etc into this highly speculative investment and I don’t want to see good people who have worked hard all of their lives get hurt.
Unfortunately, not everything we hope for turns out to the reality. Please remember as you read this that I am not your enemy; I want the IQD to appreciate as highly as possible. But please also remember that due to the speculative nature of this investment you should only invest money you can afford to completely lose.
I now believe I made my initial investment too hastily. I do not believe that the IQD is ever going to be revalued at 1 IQD : 3 USD, or even at 1 IQD : 1 USD. The reasons for this are simple.
1. Think about the dealers of Iraqi dinar. They are making a fortune selling you something that they tell you could appreciate 1000:1 or more over your investment. The common sense question to ask then is “Why is this guy selling me something that will soon be worth one-thousand times what I am paying for it? Why isn’t he keeping this for himself?” If you had a diamond worth $1,000.00, would you sell it to someone for $1.00? Of course not; then why are these guys doing it? Simple; they are selling you something that will never be worth what you paid for it OR will take forever to revalue at your investment.
2. If this is such a great investment, why are we, the little people, given access to this? Wouldn’t you think the banks of the world will fill their vaults with IQD? Wouldn’t bank employees tell friends and relatives about this, letting them in on this “Gold Mine”? Wouldn’t the huge Wall Street firms do the same, buying up all of the IQD they can get their hands on. The answer to all of these questions: Of Course! But it is not happening.
3. We hear emails from “the medic” or “the major” or whoever. Who are these guys? Do you KNOW they are legitimate, or do you feel that they are legitimate because we so desperately want to believe what they are saying? And why would any “medic” or “major” be briefed on Iraqi monetary policy? It doesn’t make sense. What makes more sense, IMHO, is that these are nothing more than front men for the IQD dealers who want to pump us up to get us to buy more dinar. Think of this: How many of the “deadlines” for revaluation have come and gone over the years? Dozens, if not hundreds. If these guys are so “in the know” they might miss one or two important dates, but not dozens. Their information has been so inaccurate in the past that there is no reason (again, IMHO) to believe that they have any real information regarding revaluation. The REAL date of revaluation can be established two ways: (a) hear the word direct from the government of Iraq, and (b) the IQD dealers will shut down. They are not going to sell you anything that they can cash in for more than you are willing to pay; to do so would imply that they are incompetent, yet these are the same people who we are led to believe are shrewd businessmen.
4. There are 25 TRILLION IQD in circulation right now. A “Trillion” of anything is a staggering figure. The entire GDP of Iraq, in 2009 was just less than $100B USD. That’s “Billion”, with a “B”. There is no realistic person in the world that would expect Iraq to RV at 1:1 with the US dollar. If Iraq suddenly had the equivalent to $25 trillion, this amount would mean that a third world country would suddenly have more cash than the GDP of the EU and the United States COMBINED!
While the Iraqi economy is growing all the time, consider this. The entire amount of circulating US currency at this time is about $900B US; this is only the hard, cash-money that exists in the world and does not include monetary deposits (if it did, it would be the figure commonly referred to as “M1”).
In order for the dollar to maintain parity in the world, it has to be backed by the US Government, and this government must have a tax base. The US tax base at this time is based (fundamentally) on GDP, which in the US was ~14T USD in 2009. In other words, to support the $900B dollars in world markets, the economy must be at the very least functioning well enough to be able to rely upon its’ tax base of ~14T USD GDP.
Using a crude comparison, if we divide worldwide dollar holdings ($900B) by the GDP ($14T) we get a percentage of approximately 6.5% Currency to GDP. Using this same percentage (which is unrealistically generous, comparing a stable Superpower with an emerging third-world country) we can arrive at a hypothetical figure that gives us some idea (admittedly vague) of what the maximum figure is at which the IQD can revalue. The ratio of US GDP to USD circulating is approximately 15.4:1 ($14T GDP \ $900B USD). Using this same valuation for Iraq, it would mean that their total outstanding currency would be worth about 6.5% of their GDP, or $6.5B USD. Divide this figure by the 25 Trillion IQD currency that is outstanding, and it gives you some idea of the abysmal value of our investment.
Some investors will not want to face these numbers; they will want to talk about how much oil Iraq has and attempt to compare to other oil rich nations such as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. That is a great idea. Saudi Arabia has 264 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. Kuwait has 101 billion. Iraq is in third place with 115 billion (Iran has second place with 138 billion). Both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait are robust oil economies. Let’s look at some of these numbers in table form:
GDP Current exchange rate Amount of outstanding Oil production
(2009) To one US dollar Currency (M barrels\day)
Saudi
Arabia 581B $.266 to one Riyal(Fixed) Unknown 10.8
Kuwait 150.2B $3.46 to one Dinar Unknown 2.74
Iraq 96.6B $.000857 to one IQD 25 Trillion 2.42
Of course there are many other considerations, but the one that continues to concern me is the than those listed above, but what continues to concern me is the amount of outstanding currency. At this current exchange rate, this produces an entire outstanding circulation of IQD equivalent to only 21.4B USD. This is a very small sum for the outstanding currency value of a mid-sized nation.
This is one of the factors that I think will lead to the “three-zero lop” we have all heard so much about. This will be disastrous for all IQD investors, but is inevitable. According to Mudher Kasim, a senior advisor at the central bank of Iraq, the lop will occur in 2010. We don’t have to like it, but this is coming from the Central Bank of Iraq; not a “medic”, “captain”, or whatever stranger who claims to have “well placed sources”. That means that the 25,000 IQD note that you hold will effectually become a 25 IQD note. It will not devalue; it exchange rate for USD will remain the same, but this lop will effectively quash the millionaire-fantasies that so many of us hoped for when we invested in IQD. And this lop will happen, according to the central bank of Iraq.
I apologize for not seeming more optimistic, and I’m not trying to rain on our parade, but we must be realistic. It is foolish to believe that some Internet stranger that we’ve never even met is going to hand us a currency that, any day now, will be worth 200, 500, 1000 times what we paid for it. It’s a great fantasy, like winning the lottery, but the truth is it probably will not happen.
I will be very happy to be proven wrong!!!!
From Enorrste: Here are my answers to the post at the head of this thread.
1. Currency traders make money on the spread; that means they make money on the difference between what they buy a currency for and what they turn around and sell it for. There is NO speculation in this. It is strictly business. On the other hand, according to what I have been told, some currency traders also speculate with their own money privately as well.
2. Currency trading is international and available to everyone on the planet. There is no way to keep us “little people” from investing in the IQD.
3. Site owners are investors and speculators in most cases. Those who are dealers obviously have stated so on their web sites, such as Dinar Trade owned by Ali. However, by law Ali cannot “speculate”. Therefore is you see a sight that involves speculation you may rest assured that it is not run by a dealer. In addition, of those site owners that I know or am aware of I have no knowledge that any of them is a pumper. This would include Frank, Medic, TerryK, Stardogger, and DinarDaddy. Adam uses his site to generate income for himself, but does not make money by pumping the IQD. If he is pumping anything, it may be Geico Car Insurance! Regarding the fact that “intel” is disproved there are two ways to look at this: (1) the intel was not given sincerely, which I doubt, or (2) the situation changed after the intel was offered, which I suspect is the case almost every time. Therefore being “wrong” does not mean that the person was “pumping” but instead means that they were mistaken, even though sincere. IQD dealers will NOT shut down at the RV. They make money by trading currency. Price is irrelevant to them. They will stay open.
4. The amount of outstanding IQD at this point is no longer 25 trillion, even though it was that high at one point. The CBI has been buying back IQD for months now and most recently bought back $9 billion worth (about 10 trillion). In addition a large amount of the IQD is in the CBI itself in both large and small denominated notes (probably at least 7 trillion). Then there is the fact that the large foreign holders will NOT return their IQD to the CBI immediately but will instead hold them in reserves for a minimum of 6 months, and then trade them back for oil. Therefore the total that the CBI should expect to “cash in” in the short term is the outstanding money supply within the country plus whatever else may come in from abroad and not be held. Since within the country the “cash in” will involve a trade of large denoms for small ones, this is a wash and does not affect money supply or the ability of the CBI to cover it. The remainder of a 25,000 note traded for a 25 dinar note would remain as a deposit and not affect the money supply or “affordability” issue for the CBI. Those last large denoms that come back to the CBI will be covered by the reserves of the country, which are more than adequate for that purpose. Therefore we may reasonably expect that the money supply after the RV will drop to 25 billion dinars, as Shabibi has stated it would, and with $45 billion in reserves there is ample to support $1, or $2 or even $3 for the IQD.
5. The attempt made by the poster to compare Iraq to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Kuwait is misguided. First, those countries have not had their oil production dramatically reduced by war as has Iraq. Second, Iraq’s reserves are “pure sweet crude” and lie about 30 feet below the surface, making extraction extremely inexpensive. Third, their natural gas reserves are known to be greater than their oil reserves. Fourth, they have plans to have production from current 2 billion barrels per day to over 10 billion barrels per day within the next 5 years. All of this means that Iraq will definitely be able to support its revalued currency.
6. I have discussed the “lop” theory at length. All one needs to do is read the announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the CBI themselves. There will not be a lop and they have stated this clearly. They will revalue the currency and then later in the year or early next year they will eliminated the large denominated notes. However, as their statements have been made clearly, the large denominated notes will remain legal tender throughout the process. Therefore there will NOT be a lop.
This did not leave me in a great place.
I have been here for 6 years I think and have a nice stash, but will someone please offer their opinion to this?
Darren You too….
Jim
Jim if you could break this down into a sentence or two.
There will be no lop,.
Jim> There is about a handful of people like this guy above that seems to think this way. Their theories have been debunked a hundred times! But they come out of the woodwork from time to time and discourage the unexpected. Don’t let it bother you. It is just someone that bought in and has lost faith in his investment…probably has been waiting a few years. I remember parts of his post, but do not care to read it again. It is hogwash. This post has been around for awhile and somehow, it keeps getting reposted. I think his name is REALLY pacster!
Hello Jennofer,
Yes you are correct. But to qualify my statement here is some more information you may already no about but this should also debunk the nay sayer Jim Felch was referring to.
The nay sayer states that there is “25 TRILLION IQD” in circulation then states that Iraq’s GDP is ONLY 100 BILLION in USD. He is erroneously comparing the quantity of Iraq’s currency to Iraq’s GDP in US Dollars.
In short, the quantity of any nation’s currency should be compared to that nations’ GDP in value of their own currency. (Now stay with me here)
Then he switches up his model of comparison by illustrating the US circulation of currency to that of US GDP in US dollars.
Therefore, he is inconsistent with his comparisons as he should have been comparing the quantity of Iraq’s IQD to Iraq’s GDP and the quantity of USD to the America’s GDP.
Furthermore he skews Iraq’s GDP as they have untapped oil that is being contracted to sell throughout the world. A slight of hand argument, some call it smoke and mirrors. And while he is doing this no mention of the world’s shortage in oil supply was mentioned.
The US Military has stated that the US will experience a shortage of oil by 2015. With an oil supply in world wide demand, with Iraq poised to be the primary dealer of that oil, what does that mean to the value of Iraq’s Dinar? And does anyone still think Iraq’s GDP will remain at 100 Billion USD?
Speaking of which. The nay sayer says that Iraq’s GDP is 100 Billion in USD that may come out to over 100 Trillion in IQD! That’s a rough estimation, but think about it. Iraq has printed 25 Trillion Dinar and their GDP in Dinar is OVER 100 Trillion. Add to that factor that they will not have any debt by 2012, you can then ask yourself the question is this still a pipe dream?
Now compare that to the US Dilemma. Our Nation’s debt will soon be passing our nation’s GDP. In contrast, Iraq WILL NOT have a national debt crisis. IN ESSENCE THEIR NATION’S DEBT TO GDP RATIO WILL BE NILL. IN FACT THEY WILL HAVE A SURPLUS.
In conclusion when that nay sayer dramatically states that Iraq has overprinted their currency to the likes of 25 TRILLION then compares that to their GDP of 100 BILLION USD. He is unwittingly making a case for the Iraqi Dinar because by his numbers. They have printed out a SHORTAGE OF CURRENCY.
ok THANKS jEN.
sOME OF WHAT HE SAYS IS TRUE: lIKE THE DATES THATNEVER HAPPEN AND SOME CAN MAKE SENSE. i AM IN AND i HAVE BEEN IN SINCE 2004 SO i AM GOOD – THERE IS A KNOT AT TIMES WHEN i SEE THIS LONG WRITTEN THESIS
Hello Jim Felch.
Jim it was good to see that you rebutted that gentleman’s long diatribe against the Dinar. I will give you my condensed rebuttal to his argument now. In particular the gentleman’s 1st point is a grade school argument:
1. He states:“Why is this guy selling me something that will soon be worth one-thousand times what I am paying for it? Why isn’t he keeping this for himself?”
Me- When a dealer is profiting by selling the Dinar in turn he is able to buy more Dinar. Real simple.
Trading currency of this nature and being able to buy that currency HAS ALWAYS been available to the “little people”, in the same manner that trading a stock with promising future has also been available. Again real simple. I once traded Vietnamese currency, and guess what? I bought more with the profits I made. In short, our country has a history of “Little People” who became millionaires. Again real simple.
2. As far as the supply of Iraq’s currency and oil go, the numbers are small given that their main domestic product (oil) will be traded world wide and that the worlds largest companies are bidding to get that oil. Also they have vast amounts of oil that has yet to be tapped. And as you put it it is only 30 feet under the ground.
3. He states: “According to Mudher Kasim, a senior adviser at the central bank of Iraq, the lop will occur in 2010. We don’t have to like it, but this is coming from the Central Bank of Iraq;
Me-Never heard of such announcement and had it been for real that information would have been posted in the mainstream media. And as you put it: “All one needs to do is read the announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the CBI themselves. There will not be a lop and they have stated this clearly.
More on the next posting
Continued from last posting:
If this is a scam like some have actually stated or to put it more mildly just a pipe dream, then this is a scam that the whole world is participating in.
We now have Iran a predominately a Sh’iitte nation advising Iraq that they they should allow for the Sunni’s to be involved in the process. Point here is that everybody has something to gain from a prosperous Iraq.
Iran also knows they need to be on good terms with Iraq when Iraq becomes a world player in the oil trade.
Next up you have Mastercard and Visa working with the Warka Bank. Lending yet another long line of credibility to where Iraq’s currency will be, and by 2012 Iraq WILL have a surplus. So that 25 Trillion the nay sayer was referring to will have more value than US currency considering WE have 14 Trillion in debt.
The Irony here is that I am using that nay sayers logic regarding regarding supply of currency and supply of a domestic product in extreme world wide demand. Then you add the national debt factor and the nay sayers logic is completely debunked.
Last but not the least-How is Iraq’s CBI and bank of Warka going to Lop off zeros for those who have electronic bank accounts?
And what would Iraq say to ALL of the World’s Largest companies who are account holders that they are going to reduce the sums in their account to make adjustments for lopping off the zeros from Iraq’s hard currency.
Answer: It can’t be done without destroying their own trade and their credibility from which Iraq needs to make the profits that will put them in a surplus by 2012.